Although Bruce Schneier suspects new leakers behind recent reports, for now anyway most data about NSA capabilities that we have comes from Snowden documents. From this data it indeed follows that NSA didn't break cryptography two years ago. But it would be plain unprofessional of them not to raise the game by this time, especially given world's backslash against leaks.
I'm not saying that NSA nowadays have means to break strong crypto. But they surely should have responded to the growing usage of crypto in some way. My money goes on increasingly employing insiders.
Actually, I'd say the probability of three-letter-agencies planting backdoors after Snowden leaks have increased: developer community hasn't responded with radically new tools and techniques that would allow us to detect and root them out on mass-scale, at the same time journalists burned lots of NSA's precious toys while IT-companies rendered others useless by mass-deploying crypto and modernizing their infrastructure.
I'm not saying that NSA nowadays have means to break strong crypto. But they surely should have responded to the growing usage of crypto in some way. My money goes on increasingly employing insiders.
Actually, I'd say the probability of three-letter-agencies planting backdoors after Snowden leaks have increased: developer community hasn't responded with radically new tools and techniques that would allow us to detect and root them out on mass-scale, at the same time journalists burned lots of NSA's precious toys while IT-companies rendered others useless by mass-deploying crypto and modernizing their infrastructure.