No it is much too late if all it does is beat HEVC. Adoption and hardware availability is already there for HEVC so that has almost certainly become the successor to AVC as the main compatible widely deployed codec. 50% encoded size for same quality and similar computational complexity would do the trick but a 80% encoded file size wouldn't do it.
I guess AVC will fade out over the next 5-10 years and HEVC will dominate from a couple of years time until 2025 or so unless something computationally feasible can encode to about 50% file size earlier. Xiph needs to be demonstrating something in about 2022 that encodes to 50% of HEVC size with computational complexity that will be feasible in 2025 and that complexity has to be manageable in (mobile) hardware and in software.
OK, sorry I may have agreed disagreeably. I just want be clear that it needed to be a whole generation beyond at that being a little better and Free wasn't going to be enough which based on WebM/AVC discussion in the past many people seemed to believe.
I guess AVC will fade out over the next 5-10 years and HEVC will dominate from a couple of years time until 2025 or so unless something computationally feasible can encode to about 50% file size earlier. Xiph needs to be demonstrating something in about 2022 that encodes to 50% of HEVC size with computational complexity that will be feasible in 2025 and that complexity has to be manageable in (mobile) hardware and in software.