I think one of the main reasons it's so hard for new developers to make money is that -- as has been said so often -- discovery is broken on the App Store. The "new" category basically doesn't exist anymore, and even if it did there are a ton of new apps being released _daily_.
For everyone's complaints about Apple's stringent review process, there's a ton of crapware on there, which makes customers really hesitant to buy.
In [some] ways you're better off charging _more_ money and targeting a highly specific user base. Then you at least have a good shot at reaching the top-grossing lists in niche categories and gaining visibility.
Edit: to be clear, there's a lot of different types of apps and the free or IAP route can be the right choice. But, IMO you need something that has mass appeal if you're going to rely on converting small percentages of free users to paid users.
I disagree. The issue is not exposure to customers, it is the mindset of customers. The market has matured as smartphones have become ubiquitous and free apps have come to dominate the market. Direct sales have simply faded because they are less lucrative at the highest level, and users have re-based their perceptions around that. Even if you could get your paid app to the top of the charts and attain maximum exposure, you would still make less than if you had used a fremium or ad-based model. Why do you think all the highest-grossing apps are free?
I don't think this is a particularly surprising phenomenon. People work very hard for their money and have far too little of it. If they can get something for free, why would they not? Moreover, if everyone else is distributing their thing for free, why on earth would people pay for anything?
Money is valuable because it is scarce, and if people can avoid paying, they will.
While I agree, I think the bigger aspect of maturity is people understand their own usage. In the beginning it was cool to pay a dollar to try a new app. Now people have learned their lesson and understand the value these apps are quickly fleeting. They will open an app maybe 1 or 2 times and never find it useful again. This goes for games as well.
Free apps that target massive volume are unquestionably the heavy hitters, but a point I was making was that there can be a value in targeting a niche market with a paid app.
A moderately profitable app can give an independent developer the runway they need to bootstrap and follow up with more mainstream ideas.
It's not just discovery. The land grab is over and established apps are well entrenched. There was a huge first-wave advantage for mobile apps. We just barely caught the end of it ourselves, so we're doing ok.
The quality apps will always stand out. I'd tried a bunch of note taking apps before vesper came along - and it put them all to shame. I think I've tried every podcast app out there - and they are all really, really cruddy. I spend 10-15 hours a week with iCatcher, and it reminds me of my Palm Treo 650 - It's the best of the bunch (for me), but it still manages to seriously annoy me every time I use it.
If marco gets good traction with his design team (Pacific Helm again?), I'm sure he's going to blow away the "quality" podcast-player market. Only problem is, the market for people who are looking for quality podcast players is probably in the tenths (or even hundredths) of a percent of the iOS users.
But, if he makes Overcast free....
I'm very interested in seeing how he manages to In-App charge for a free podcast player.
For everyone's complaints about Apple's stringent review process, there's a ton of crapware on there, which makes customers really hesitant to buy.
In [some] ways you're better off charging _more_ money and targeting a highly specific user base. Then you at least have a good shot at reaching the top-grossing lists in niche categories and gaining visibility.
Edit: to be clear, there's a lot of different types of apps and the free or IAP route can be the right choice. But, IMO you need something that has mass appeal if you're going to rely on converting small percentages of free users to paid users.