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Arguably Iran is seeing turmoil, at least partially, due to drought.

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officia...



But the drought was not caused by climate change, but by mismanagement ie complete neglect of the problem.


Is not climate change mismanagement or complete neglect of the problem?


Iran specifically had infrastructure in place to help manage the water for Tehran (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qanat). The Ayatollahs not only _destroyed_ that infrastructure and the system of humans needed to maintain it, but they also encouraged pumping of water from local aquifers, among other obviously stupid water management techniques: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/khomeini...

So, you are right, but in Iran's case, the current regime pretty much did the opposite of anything you should have done, while also chopping of their hands to do anything more.


Absolutely.

But the problems are on different time scales and spheres of influence.

Iran can’t do anything on their own against climate change. But they can decide to fund water projects instead of bombs.

It’s a bit like saying: I went to the beach for a day and got sunburned. It’s climate change!

Yes the sun got more intense because of climate change (maybe) but why didn’t you buy an umbrella or sun screen?


Over 50% of their economy is petroleum, managed by the Ministry of Petroleum government body.

They pump over 4 Million barrels per day (https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production).

This equals about 1.7 Million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per day, which is an increase of 120% since year 2000 and corresponds to about 2% of the global CO2 emissions.

No nation on earth like Iran, save perhaps for China and Norway, is in such a unique position of power, both economically, socially, and with the engineering knowhow) and political ability to actually do something to prevent climate damage. Instead they are making the situation more difficult.


Yes I agree. Still it isn’t either or. You can do both if you’re sensible.

One will help in the mid-term and the other in the long-term.


It's a clear case of sleeping in the bed you made yourself. Climate change has made droughts more common and more severe.

https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/goddard/warming-...


I mean. If they didn’t sell the oil, a man in orange shows up declaring the spice must flow. The best spice.


> But they can decide to fund water projects instead of bombs.

And become again a client state of the West, you forgot that part.


Oh yes sorry. I forgot that it’s much better to let your people starve then to be a client state of the West. I think you have your trade-offs right.


> I forgot that it’s much better to let your people starve

It's actually the US making the Iranian people starve on account of their (US's) economic war against Iran, and the same goes for Cuba and the Cubans living in Cuba. Saying that the Iranians should embrace with full arms the same Westerners that are making them starve right at this moment has to be a bit.


Yes, it's always other people. It's never the actual leaders of a country who kill their own people.


People in western client states still starve just with less of their countries resources.


The closest semi-Westernized country to Iran in the same region is Turkey:

* Highly educated population.

* Remnant of an ancient non-Arab Islamic empire.

* Almost precisely the same population count.

And people don't starve in Turkey. Why would they starve in a Western-aligned Iran? The main problem in the richer half of the world is already obesity.


Client state doesn't mean westernized.

Just pick a random African country where the West helps.


Iran is an ancient and developed civilization, though. One of the oldest in the world. There is no reason why it should develop into the next South Sudan.

And some African countries are, in fact, developing as well. I don't think that an average Kenyan starves either.


> And become again a client state of the West, you forgot that part.

That matters if you live in a functioning democracy.

If you are being exploited and oppressed by your own ruling class rather than a foreign one it makes little difference. You might even be better off.


Climate change is actually a strong reason for better management. The same is true everywhere. More floods? You need to provide better drainage. Drier climate risking more forest fires? You need to manage forests better.

In many cases governments are cutting back on spending on dealing with these sorts of problems because they can avoid blame by saying it is a result of climate change and few people ask why they did not act to mitigate the effects.


What gets me is that the same politicians in the US sat things med to be managed better but also that we always need to be spending less. It’s basically “not my problem, someone else can take care of that.”


Thank you!


Monocausality is quite the assertion.


First of all, usually "and" denotes at least two separate things.

Second mismanagement is a super broad term showing failure on all levels of the state.

It’s definitely not monocausal but the effect many years of utter betrayal of their own people.


I agree with those causes. But climate change is also a cause. It magnifies the consequences of mismanagement, reducing the luxury incompetence margin that an equally incompetent theocrat/autocrat could have relied on 30 years ago.

As climate change gets worse in the future, the margin for error will keep shrinking. More countries will start to experience similar problems. Only the most competent will survive, but eventually regional instability will attack the foundations of that state capacity as a contagion byproduct, making it harder to be the competent outlier.

This all becomes a push driver for migration towards the colder north, as the equator becomes progressively destabilized and uninhabitable. Not only water shortages in dry climates but wet-bulb temperatures in temperate climates that make existing outdoors dangerous for periods of the year.


Yes I agree that climate change is a huge problem but it doesn’t release the leaders of a country of their responsibility to mitigate the effects wherever possible.


This argument is particularly pernicious as it can, in it's general form, always deflect from the issues of climate change and always focus on blaming local governments.

This is what will happen in the future btw - climate change will apply pressure via famine and droughts, but the fallout will always be attributed to the failure of local governments to correctly "manage the change".

We'll go from "climate change is a hoax" to "climate change is just a given and it's your duty to manage it".


I don’t man. It sounds as if you don’t want to answer a simple question and instead like to wander into theoretical thought experiments.

The case here is very simple: invest in infrastructure for your people or invest in bombs to attack foreign states.

And you’re saying it’s climate change? I’d like to live in your world.


I would say the climate change argument is particularly pernicious as its general form implies we all need to submit to more government control, we all need to feel guilt for being alive, and suffer higher prices or all sorts of market manipulation (EV rebates, "green programs", shuttering power plants) while the rich elite fly around on private jets burning hundreds of pounds of fuel per hour. While corporations simply outsource manufacturing to Asia, completely circumventing any environmental laws, cutting jobs, and burning bunker oil to move the product back here.

I don't believe a single thing they say.


That's a false dichotomy.

"Since there are murderers out there, it is fine for me to murder/there is no point in trying to reduce murder rates."


It's a false equivalency to put carbon emissions on par with any crime, much less a violent felony.


Arguably the climate change we see today (and will see in the future) is also largely caused by mismanagement and complete neglect of the problem.


I recall reading about a paper in SciAm or American Scientist a couple of decades ago, where they had trained a ML model to predict regional conflicts or civil wars. The main input was scarcity of food, mainly through price IIRC.

They trained it on historical data up to the 90s or so, and had it predict the "future" up to the time of the article. And as I recall it did very well. They even included some actual near-future predictions as well which also turned out pretty accurately as I recall.

Which I suppose isn't a huge surprise after all. People don't like to starve.


Link?


My memory isn't good enough to recall the name of the paper, however doing some searching I see the field has not stood still. Here[1] is an example of a more recent paper where they've included more variables. A quote from the conclusions:

The closest natural resource–society interaction to predict conflict risk according to our models was food production within its economic and demographic context, e.g., with GDP per capita, unemployment, infant mortality and youth bulge.

[1]: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574 Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning (Open Access)



while the drought was the last straw, i think the mismanagement of their water resources by the regime (for embezzlement of public funds, direct or indirect, into insider pockets etc) is the true root cause. There's "enough" water to last thru the current drought, if it was better utilized in the past.


Supporting this:

https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanat...

“The government blames the current crisis on changing climate [but] the dramatic water security issues of Iran are rooted in decades of disintegrated planning and managerial myopia,” says Keveh Madani, a former deputy head of the country’s environment department and now director of the United Nations University’s Institute of Water, Environment and Health.


It takes a certain kind of self-delusion to blame climate change and at the same time ignore that your own actions has been one of the major drivers, both in the past and today, of that very same climate change.


While you cannot put the blame on climate change onto iran alone (all of humanity has a part in it), the regime wants to deflect the blame conveniently onto climate change so as to absolve themselves of being responsible for their current water crisis.

So it's not really delusion, but irresponsibility and selfishness.


I’m only putting 2-3% of the global climate change as directly attributable to Iran. And their explicit attempts at preventing progress in stopping it.


That, plus decades of mismanagement and corruption...




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