It seems to me that Milei blazed the trail for the second Trump administration. I think we can count on similar economic effects, and a sharp increase in poverty. But to me (from the US), Milei seems politically weaker than Trump, and less likely to be able to seize total power over future elections. The way Milei's policies have impacted the Argentine economy, do you think he has a chance of being reelected? How much damage does it take before the pendulum swings back?
I do think Milei looks weaker than Donald because:
- He is one year in (Donald just began so his fans are still in the honeymoon phase) and still "trickle down" is not working. He did get inflation to go down, but in a way similar to how bleeding out to death also lowers your blood pressure. Argentina needed a Corpus callosotomy, but got The Simpsons Dr Nick for the operation.
- The sheer power of being the USA president is orders of magnitude bigger than being Argentina's president. Argentina depends on fresh money to pay its debts, debt rollover, etc. Also, Argentinians are one of the biggest USD cash hoarders in the world due to currency trauma so we directly depend on what the USA does. no kidding.
- I have NO IDEA how the legislative elections of 2025 or the presidentials of 2027 are going to go. Trying to predict how Argentina will be in 6 months is harder than predicting Norway's next 50 years. Does he have a chance? Of course. The longer he can keep the ARS/USD stable the longer he will be in power. In the worst case it could take ten years, like last time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Carlos_Menem
> How much damage does it take before the pendulum swings back?
>> Argentina needed a Corpus callosotomy, but got The Simpsons Dr Nick for the operation.
Lol. So, I don't know how I should read this. In some sense I agree with you. Did you initially agree with Macri? I was living in Argentina when he was elected, and my Argentine friends lost their minds. Privately, I was not a fan of his socially reactionary rhetoric... he seemed like a version of George W Bush. But I thought that his plan to float the currency and end the blue dollar was the only thing that made any sense, given the ridiculousness of the economy - even my communist friends who were protesting at his election had more USD under their mattresses than ARS in a bank (most worked for the government, and got the preferable exchange rate, after all). Macri did seem to control inflation for a little while, without completely taking a chainsaw to the state. The IMF was initially pleased. Does something like that seem... palatable now?
