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Nonsense. If you spoke about self-driving cars a few decades ago you would have understood it to have meant that you could go to a dealer and buy a car that would drive itself, wherever you might be, without your input as a driver.

No-one would have equated the phrase "we'll have self-driving cars" with "some taxis in a few of US cities"



That's how all innovation works. Ford never said people asked for a faster horse, but the theory holds. It doesn't matter what benchmarks you set, the market finds an interesting way to satisfy people's needs.


The prediction is:

> First driverless "taxi" service in a major US city, with dedicated pick up and drop off points, and restrictions on weather and time of day.

Their 2025 analysis is: "This is unlikely to happen in the first half of this century."

The prediction is clear. The evaluation is dishonest.


I agree.. Waymo sells +150k rides every week according to Alphabet’s Q3 2024 earnings announcement. Yes they need human assistance once in a while. I know of plenty other automation that needs to be tickled or rebooted periodically to work, that most would still say works automatically.

Maybe he has a very narrow or strict definition of ‘driverless’. That would explain the “not in this half of the century”-sentiment. I mean, it’s 25 years!




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