RenTech was founded by legit signals processing guys who cut their teeth breaking codes for the NSA and basically invented ML for the stock market. They also built the best dataset in the world (at the time) for stock info as a competitive advantage. There's no real way to duplicate what they did today when everyone else is already doing quant trades to take advantage of suckers.
They lost money for a long time, and it was not easy building what they built. I really enjoyed the early parts where they were solving problems in creative ways like any startup. For example, they needed data so had people calling them each day reading off numbers and someone writing them to down to enter them later.
How the later part of the story ties to today's politics is also interesting.
If the gains are huge, it's either temporary luck or they're cheating. You cannot have long term high alpha without either. If you meet a person who can constantly flip a coin heads side up, ask them to keep going and they'll either fail or you'll find the coin is rigged.
“It’s impossible for me to beat the market consistently” does not imply “nobody can beat the market consistently” or “nobody can beat the market consistently for a long enough time to become filthy rich”.
I would think that the ways that people generate consistent alpha would include scale advantages, information asymmetry, execution advantages, geographical advantages and a strategic edge. Usually some combination of those factors.
Someone like Warren Buffet has a once in a generation skill combined with massive scale and information advantage (he sees deals in publicly-traded stocks before anyone else). You may claim that it’s not fair to cite Buffet here, but he’s just the most public example of market actors with a durable advantage.
I fully agree Buffett is a one of a kind investor who's outperformed. I would love to have owned BRK shares, and still think you can't really go wrong owning them. That said, his performance v. S&P 500, a simple index, hasn't persisted. Basically, Buffett lost his advantages and even started making public bets that index funds would outperform actively managed funds.
> I did the math and starting from 1965 to 2002, a period of 38 years, the compounded annual return of the S&P 500 was 10.02% while that of Berkshire was 25.66%. But—and here's the kicker—from 2003 to 2022, a period of 20 years, the S&P 500 delivered a 9.80% compounded annual return while Berkshire came in lower at 9.75%. [0]
He's gotten fined for insider dealing by the SEC. And I figure that a lot of his "alpha" came in the earlier days of the markets when there was less regulation.
FWIW, here's an interesting article on Buffett's alpha. [1]
> Previous researchers analyzing Buffett’s returns using conventional size, value, and momentum factors haven’t been able to adequately explain his outperformance, the authors say, leaving admirers to conclude that Buffett’s magic is pure alpha. So they extend the analysis by testing Buffett’s impressive returns — as measured by Berkshire’s stock — against two factors that better reflect his folksy investing wisdom: One called “Betting Against Beta,” which represents safe, low-beta stocks, and another called “Quality Minus Junk,” which represents the stocks of high-quality companies that are profitable, growing, and paying dividends.
The results? “Controlling for these factors,” the authors write, “drives the alpha of Berkshire’s public stock portfolio down to a statistically insignificant annualized 0.1%, meaning that these factors almost completely explain the performance of Buffett’s public portfolio.” The factors also explain “a large part” of Berkshire’s overall stock return, the authors add, as well as Berkshire’s private portfolio, insofar as their alphas also become statistically insignificant.
RenTech's magic comes from their tax attorneys and creative accounting like their ploy to get long term capital gains treatment on daily trades! They've had to pay at least 7 billion in fines, which is an astronomical fine [0] and probably means they were doing even worse.
From what I understand, that fund still does huge gains, and can't get too big.