It is always harder to accurately forecast actual recession, than it is to forecast the predictions of the Fed model. You don't need an information edge there, just information parity.
When the Fed takes action, it is usually a very rational action, with a clear-defined goal of long-term economic health. This makes their actions easier to predict than other market participants.
So you went the hard route, forecasting the highly complex system directly, but then "variables outside the model" caused the "accurate" model to not perform well? You don't buy anything with that, since you live in a world with outside variables which mess up your predictions. The solution is to make your model actually accurate, by incorporating these "variables outside the model": Predict what others will predict.
When the Fed takes action, it is usually a very rational action, with a clear-defined goal of long-term economic health. This makes their actions easier to predict than other market participants.
So you went the hard route, forecasting the highly complex system directly, but then "variables outside the model" caused the "accurate" model to not perform well? You don't buy anything with that, since you live in a world with outside variables which mess up your predictions. The solution is to make your model actually accurate, by incorporating these "variables outside the model": Predict what others will predict.