The majority of that money is in the form of Azure credit.
It all pretty much hinges on how much talent you think Microsoft can obtain. I’m going to make a bet that Microsoft poaches between 30 and 70% of open AI key employees.
If they spent $10 billion to achieve this outcome, securing the loyalty of the two founders and attracting double digit percentage of the employees, then they will have conservatively gotten a 5 to 10x return overnight
Edit: I was too conservative, it's looking like 90%
It all pretty much hinges on how much talent you think Microsoft can obtain. I’m going to make a bet that Microsoft poaches between 30 and 70% of open AI key employees.
If they spent $10 billion to achieve this outcome, securing the loyalty of the two founders and attracting double digit percentage of the employees, then they will have conservatively gotten a 5 to 10x return overnight
Edit: I was too conservative, it's looking like 90%