I find this to not be a helpful frame of thinking. A divorce is not a random natural disaster that befalls you.

You have a lot of control about who you end up with, who you are inside and how you engage with your partner. So the fact that divorce happens "often" or "rarely" doesn't matter to an individual scenario - it's completely within those people's controls to make good or bad decisions.

I understand your point, agree to it somewhat, but I think is a bit unfair and simplistic.

People have externalities thrown at them (loss, grieve, missed expectations, sickness, depression,…)

Is a bit arrogant to think a person or a couple can navigate all these via their own choices. Reminds me of my hardcore catholic friends who think that divorcing equals to low commitment, willpower or maturity.

I appreciate what you are saying and I think we're mainly in agreement. You can't eliminate all risk and you can't guarantee success but you have a lot of ways to influence the outcome.

Using your example of depression. If you marry someone manic/depressive because you love how crazy and wild she is on her up days, her down days are going to hit you hard when you're living in the same house and sharing kids and responsibilities. So maybe that dynamic has a 50% divorce rate which could have been anticipated way in advance. On the other hand, there's always a chance that someone stable you marry will get into a deep funk years down the line and you won't be able to help her manage through that, but that maybe is a 2% probably. You can't control that 2% but you can manage to not be in the 50% and that's where your focus should be.

but it takes two. if your partner does not reciprocate then sometimes there is nothing you can do to fix the relationship.

but that should not prevent anyone from trying to find a partner. it just means that i would look for a partner who understands this, and is willing to look out for your needs just as much as you look out for theirs.

Exactly. Who you marry is 100% within your control. It can still fail, but you aren't setting yourself up for failure at least.

ok, it is in your control to pick a partner that is aware of these needs. but it is much easier said than done. and yes, not paying attention to that would be setting yourself up for failure. sadly many do.

Divorce happens often and the rates are climbing. It makes sense to follow statistical guidelines.

"Who you marry" is not in your control. People change over the years. Marriage changes your spouse, and yourself. Some people realize what they actually want as they mature.

Most of the smartest, most thoughtful people in the world get divorced. They all thought they had control over marriage.

the problem is that many get married blind. they have high expectations but ignore the tools to verify that these expectations will be met. they just hope for the best and think love will take care of the challenges. but checking your expectations takes a lot of self reflection and understanding of your own person, and consultation with your partner about your common expectations of life. pre marriage counseling is a good idea.

love alone is not enough, it's actually less important than common goals and a dedication to support each other. if love were a precondition to a happy marriage then arranged marriages (ignoring the downsides) would have had to all fail 100% of the time. when they don't fail it's because these people understand to care for each other and most likely were able to develop love for each other over time.

// "Who you marry" is not in your control.

There's a huge difference between "not at all" or "not fully" in my control. I can't guarantee my outcome, but I have deep influence over my chances.