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Reading people's reactions to this makes me think there's only these possible outcomes to trying to get people to act on something that is super important but not immediately obvious:

Trigger: knowledgeable people sound the alarm!

Response action 1: people act immediately and well, leading to...

Action 1 outcome: problem solved before it manifests, leading people to complain about how ridiculous the alarmists were and the over-reaction to the issue e.g. Y2K.

Response action 2: people begin to act, but not quite enough, leading to...

Action 2 outcome: problem still manifests "a bit", leading people to argue over the alarmists and whether more action is warranted or not.

Response action 3: people ignore the alarm, leading to...

Action 3 outcome: worst predictions start manifesting, leading people to complain that the alarm wasn't loud enough or targeted well enough to make them act.

I feel we're experiencing a mix of 2 and 3.



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