It's like paying 10k in tax over 100k, you just need to wait a year. At least, that's how I interpret the comment

But then you’d owe tax on the 50k profit you made. Besides, nothing is ever guaranteed!

Basically I concur what searedsteak wrote. Would add that stock grant in the company is in number of shares and is paid out over 4 years. So, I really like low stock prices when they vest (taxable event), while capital gains is 0 for non professional investors. So, unless you intended to sell stock right out there’s no difference and only gain. I never sell shares of my company.

Switzerland doesn’t have capital gains tax except for professional stock traders. So there wouldn’t be any tax on the gain after vesting. But yeah it’s a gamble on the stock price that’s for sure.