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The same prediction is made in Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics. Many of his recommendations have come to pass.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...



That's because these "predictions"/recommendations are taken as school textbook (literally, it's required reading!) by Russian military.


Nowhere does Dugin have a larger stature than in the fever dreams of western military aficionados.


This is one of the issues I see with books of prognostications, they aren't so much as predicting the future as advocating for a course of action. They are selling their own version of the future.


Can you please provide a source? Here are some suggesting that he is influential:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/ukraine-crimea... :

Dugin serves as an adviser to State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin, a key member of the ruling United Russia party who has loudly supported Russian intervention in Ukraine, and has made widely viewed television appearances to discuss the Ukraine crisis alongside high-ranking members of the government. [Economist Sergei Glazyev] is also an associate of Dugin's.

https://www.hoover.org/research/russias-new-and-frightening-... :

Few books published in Russia during the post-communist period have exerted such an influence on Russian military, police, and foreign policy elites as Aleksandr Dugin’s 1997 neo-fascist treatise Osnovy geopolitiki: Geopoliticheskoe budushchee Rossii (Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geo-political Future of Russia).

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/27/geopolitics-russia-mack... :

The Foundations of Geopolitics sold out in four editions, and continues to be assigned as a textbook at the General Staff Academy and other military universities in Russia. “There has probably not been another book published in Russia during the post-communist period which has exerted a comparable influence on Russian military, police, and statist foreign policy elites,” writes historian John Dunlop, a Hoover Institution specialist on the Russian right.

https://azure.org.il/include/print.php?id=483 :

The publication of The Foundations of Geopolitics in 1997 was received with great interest, and brought Dugin to the attention of powerful figures in the Russian government. He wisely befriended the oligarch Aleksandr Taranzev, who recommended him to the military general staff.

...

Dugin’s book was incorporated into the curriculum of the Russian military academy and became required reading for the next generation of officers. One year later, Dugin was appointed senior political adviser to Gennadiy Seleznyov, a former member of the Communist Party and chairman of the Russian parliament, who headed the Center for Geopolitical Analysis, a think tank dedicated to policy recommendations on internal security matters.

...

The radical intellectual’s stature reached new heights with the appointment of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency. Slowly but surely, Dugin succeeded in ingratiating himself with the new president’s inner circle. He forged strong ties with a hawkish, security-oriented clique of insiders, mostly composed of ex-members of the military and the security services. First and foremost among them was Igor Sechin, a former KGB official who has served as Putin’s closest adviser for the past fifteen years and is now deputy prime minister. Other members of this powerful faction include Security Council secretary and former head of the FSB Nikolai Patrushev; former deputy prime minister and Security Council member Sergei Ivanov; and Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the lower house of parliament and chairman of Putin’s ruling United Russia party.

https://books.google.ca/books?id=0qQixjX1hwoC&q=Gennady+Sele... :

The activities of the copious and studious Eurasianist intellectual Alexander Dugin are making progress, and it is known that he has close relations with the Academy of the General Staff and once headed an advisory group in the office of Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznyov.


I know you think you’re flooding them with facts, but this is hard to read. Did it require this lengthy of a post?


For a book that seems to be mentioned so much it is confusing that there is no English translation (apart from machine learning one).

With "unofficial" translations you will never know if the translators didnt censor/change the meaning somehow.


> With "unofficial" translations you will never know if the translators didnt censor/change the meaning somehow

With official translations, you don't know that, either. In fact, for the same reasons that politicians who speak in multiple languages often give speeches, on a given subject, with substantially different content in different languages, official translations of books that are designed as political propaganda or advocacy often shade the content to different anticipated audiences in different languages.


I laughed at this one:

The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.[9]


Well they seem to have done quite well with that one. It's a shame it doesn't float or we could tow it a bit further south.


That entire list of predictions is apparently from a PDF dated 2004.

Aaaand now Brexit is a thing. A long-term pseudo-thing, but still a thing.

*Reads the rest of the list*


"Airstrip One"




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