The real Satoshi is probably dead. Who just disappears, without any warning, without saying goodbye, when their project is just beginning to take off? What sort of a person never gets involved again, even just to comment, when the project attracts the interest of heads of state? Death or severe incapacitation (stroke, coma, etc.) is the simplest explanation that fits all the things we know about this person. He probably used FDE and his family probably did not know his passphrase or what he was working on, so nobody even knew to announce what happened.
People die all the time -- car accidents, heart attacks, strokes, drug overdoses, etc. Usually you never hear about them. Satoshi was almost certainly not a well-known cryptographer or even someone with significant involvement in the cryptography research community or any related community (the whitepaper screams "enthusiast"), so his death would have likely gone unnoticed.
(Besides being a simple explanation of the evidence, this is also falsifiable -- all Satoshi has to do is spend some of his BTC or sign a message or otherwise unambiguously reappear and we will know I am wrong about this.)
People die all the time -- car accidents, heart attacks, strokes, drug overdoses, etc. Usually you never hear about them. Satoshi was almost certainly not a well-known cryptographer or even someone with significant involvement in the cryptography research community or any related community (the whitepaper screams "enthusiast"), so his death would have likely gone unnoticed.
(Besides being a simple explanation of the evidence, this is also falsifiable -- all Satoshi has to do is spend some of his BTC or sign a message or otherwise unambiguously reappear and we will know I am wrong about this.)