> There was no evidence of human-to-human transmission early on, too.
I have two comments about that:
1) Like somebody else said, if you don't look, you won't find evidence, even if it's there.
2) Wuhan officials were incentivized to say it wasn't contagious, ergo, no lockdown needed.
However, it clearly was being transmitted to non-wet market patients in late Nov./early Dec., and Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24, so you have to be wilfully blind to say it's not contagious.
There's no evidence, but should we expect evidence? Has anyone looked?
The Bayesian prior that they should have some level of immunity is pretty high, seems to me. Exactly how long and how strong such immunity is a good question, but it would be really unlikely if there was no immunity.