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A far bigger factor in a disease like this, where 80%+ of people have mild illness, is all the people that were never recorded as cases because their symptoms were too mild or were non-existent.

People want to use CFR as a measure of how worried they should be, or as some kind of comparison between countries, and it's totally inappropriate for either purpose.



If they are never recorded does that not mean they infect more people and that results in sicker population creating more burden to the health system - resulting in more deaths?

The statistics always seem to go up no matter what kind of interpretation.


The point is that deaths - the numerator of the case fatality rate - are basically always recorded, whereas cases - the denominator of the case fatality rate - represent only a subset of the people that are infected.

When the health system is severely overburdened, that subset because a smaller and smaller proportion, as scarce resources are used for testing of people presenting at hospitals rather than population-based testing.

People who are asymptomatic or have minor symptoms don't present at a hospital, so they don't get tested, so they never get recorded as a case (which, by definition, requires a test and a diagnosis).

The real population fatality rates are guaranteed to be lower than the CFR unless you believe that every person who is infected is being tested and diagnosed, and it's my opinion that they'll be much lower.




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