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This doesn’t account for it because South Korea didn’t even have the number of serious cases that Italy has.

The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases.

The number of positive tests is a factor of the number of tests done, and how selective the testing was allowed to be. It is only loosely related to the number of infected people (technically it is the lower bound).



>>"The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases."

I think you are right, but, assuming all the deaths are reported, the obvious implication is that the mortality rate is a lot lower than 3%

If fact, looking to Germany, I would say that it's around 0.2, 0.3 %

That would be the good news, the bad news is that it's extremely contagious, probably because nobody is immune to this thing.

Of course, I'm only a random guy in the Internet, so take it with a grain of salt.


I think the current most credible estimate is 0.8%-1%. That's what the UK government has been planning for, for example.


Makes sense, it's difficult to calculate without knowing the number of tests that are being done in every country.


>The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases.

Ye olde "3.6 roentgens. Not great but not terrible" factor.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg5HOnq7zD0


My comment was directed at age structure of population accounting for difference in mortality, complicated by effective collapse of medical care in certain regions of Italy that meant severe cases that could have been managed because critical and then fatal without ventilation support.




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