When I was a kid, there were about 3.5 billion people on earth. I've watched that double. Growth of 3.5 billion people. You shug off another 4 to 5 billion like it's no big deal. Maybe you're just happy to hear a prediction if leveling off, and the number is meaningless. Let me tell you, 3 to 4 billion is a LOT of people. I remember when it was ALL the people, and what it looks like to have that many more. Dont kids yourself, it's a LOT of people. The notion that the entire world will modernize and have a reduced birthrate is also an assumption. I hope we can handle it.
Yes but the scenarios 2 to 3 mentioned in the comment above are purely speculative. They in fact go contrary to the weight of more recent demographic historical evidence so far and insofar as there's a major scientific consensus of any kind on population growth, it's weighted heavily in favor of the idea that population will stabilize by or before 2100. Even the 12 billion figure is exceptionally high. The majority I've seen indicate 11 billion or less, many 10 billion and the lower professional estimates argue we might see a world population of only 9 billion or so by 2100, if I recall correctly. All this takes aside new energy, crop and general technological prospects for good human development. Currently, more people than ever are indeed living better than ever despite the population having doubled since the mid 1970s or so and the current biggest problems facing populations in need almost entirely consist of politically caused shortages, not literal absolute resource shortages.
One other thing to keep in mind as well: much of our current population explosion isn't even due to massive birth rates. It's the result of much lower infant mortality. If we were to still have the infant mortality rates we had in the beginnings of the 20th century with current global birth rates, i'd even speculate that population would already be declining. Since said birth rates continue to decline, the trend looks good globally.
Very fair point. I definitely agree with you and the article in general -- demographics definitely deserves to be the #1 big important force that will shape the world.
