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Trust them to do everything they can to keep it growing. People are in China are only generally content with their government because every year everyone gets richer and richer, except the family five blocks down the road that had their house confiscated and compensated only 25% market price because the local council is planning to build a `public facility` on the land.


I expect them to keep activity very high, but I don't expect them to allocate capital well in a way that will result in much profit and sustainable growth. This could last for a while, but IMO it's very unstable and could blow up faster than many expect.

Part of my reasons for believing this are stated in this presentation (which has been posted on HN, iirc):

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/6010227/Webshare/China%20Japan%20Pre...


A growing economy does not necessarily correlate to an appreciating currency when its value is decided by political actors.


Similar to the United States, except here your house gets seized to build a factory for Pfizer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London


Horrendous action, no doubt. But there was an interesting follow-up:

"Prior to Kelo only eight states specifically prohibited the use of eminent domain for economic development except to eliminate blight: Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, South Carolina and Washington.[30] By July 2007, 42 states had enacted some type of reform legislation in response to the Kelo decision. Of those 42 states, 21 enacted laws that severely inhibited the takings allowed by the Kelo decision, while the rest enacted laws that place some limits on the power of municipalities to invoke eminent domain for economic development. The remaining eight states have not passed laws to limit the power of eminent domain for economic development." (from the same link)

I don't think you'll see that in China.


One person's blight is another person's economic development opportunity.


Or when the local town planner adds extra restrictions to your property, so the value goes down and they can snap it up for a bargain.


Saw this the other day and it seems applicable:

Proverbs 13:8 "A person’s riches may ransom their life, but the poor cannot respond to threatening rebukes."

I was thinking about it in relation to the US legal system, but it applies to politics as well. If some local politician tries to screw you over, the appropriate response is to throw money at the court of local opinion and whoever will run against them and destroy them at the next election.

After all, if they abuse politics as a means of enriching themselves, they are unworthy to hold office.

Kick up a stink, force a by-election, start taking out ads against them in the papers etc.

Accuse them of corrupting the youth of Athens (worked for Socrates opponents).




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