Quick rule of thumb: if it's on AppleInsider, it's probably speculative bullshit. Doubly so if it's written by Daniel Eran Dilger, whose articles usually are in the following form:
Recent news item
+ A bunch of tangentially related, usually revisionist details about Apple's history
+ Some tangentially related, laughably biased, usually revisionist shots at Microsoft/Google
+ (Sometimes) An insane, impossible-to-read graph/chart
= Unsubstantiated conclusion that reads like a wish list for what Daniel wants Apple to do, not what the evidence shows.
Total red herring. Sure, I've read some of his articles in the past, and I even skimmed this one to make sure I wasn't wrong, but that doesn't change a thing about the substance of them.
Recent news item + A bunch of tangentially related, usually revisionist details about Apple's history + Some tangentially related, laughably biased, usually revisionist shots at Microsoft/Google + (Sometimes) An insane, impossible-to-read graph/chart = Unsubstantiated conclusion that reads like a wish list for what Daniel wants Apple to do, not what the evidence shows.
He recently wrote an article explaining that he thinks Apple is going to port Cocoa to Windows and release a Windows app store: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2010/11/12/when-will-apple-rel...