It'd also be interesting to explore other optimisation metrics, e.g. having common letters on the ends to allow the user to 'blindly' move the pointer to one end or the other without a need for precision.
I'm also curious if e.g. 10 shifts is twice as bad as 5 shifts, it feels to me like there's a drop-off in shifting cost after one shift.
The commonly used metric when talking about the time taken for a user to move a mouse to click on the button is log(distance/button size). So there's certainly an argument there to use the logarithm of the distance, rather than the distance.
I'm also curious if e.g. 10 shifts is twice as bad as 5 shifts, it feels to me like there's a drop-off in shifting cost after one shift.