Pragmatically, that is probably true, and bitcoin won't last for millenia either (e.g. if sha-256 has a weakness, or quantum computers render ecdsa useless).
Nevertherless, there is >0 probability of multiple harddrive failure, or much greater probability of incompetence, so there must be some rate of loss of bitcoins over time, and i'd be interested to know what that is.
I think it is interesting because once the speculation dies down, the market will set the fiat price of bitcoins according to the actual supply and demand, so this attrition has a real affect. For example, imagine if the coins believed to belong to Satoshi (1 million coins out of the current 16.5 million) were to move. The mere knowledge that they can be moved would increase the effective supply by 6-7% overnight, the effect could be dramatic.
Nevertherless, there is >0 probability of multiple harddrive failure, or much greater probability of incompetence, so there must be some rate of loss of bitcoins over time, and i'd be interested to know what that is.
I think it is interesting because once the speculation dies down, the market will set the fiat price of bitcoins according to the actual supply and demand, so this attrition has a real affect. For example, imagine if the coins believed to belong to Satoshi (1 million coins out of the current 16.5 million) were to move. The mere knowledge that they can be moved would increase the effective supply by 6-7% overnight, the effect could be dramatic.