I was promised "advice [I'll] never get" but I think we've all been hearing about index funds for quite a while now. In fact, it's the current conventional wisdom. Buying index funds is probably tantamount to betting on the change in the GDP. The people who work in finance want nothing but incoming money, low fees or high fees, and .23 percent of a trillion dollars is still a pretty nice skim.
Well, the components of the S&P are publicly available: The most mathematically sound thing to do (if you have 200K or more) is to buy a sample (30 or more) stocks on the index through a broker, and your total costs will be about 300 dollars. The one-time fee will be 300 / 200K = 0.0015 = .15 percent. Why aren't they recommending this course of action? Index funds are good because they are "stupid" (because stupid is cheap)...but anybody can do "stupid".
There is wealth to be extracted from people who think they are clever (but aren't) and people who think they are dumb (and are). You can make very good money on the market (1 percent a day or more) by buying on the noise. But this depends on one thing: An upward trend, however small. That upward trend depends only on money flows.
Re: Betting on the GDP. Notice the close similitude between the American and Foreign trends:
"I think we've all been hearing about index funds for quite a while now." Agreed.
"The most mathematically sound thing to do (if you have 200K or more)" your basic assumption here is a problem.
Index funds allow you (well me, maybe you do have $200K) to invest a small part of your income per month. That is a service, and obviously, I'm willing to pay for it.
Well, the components of the S&P are publicly available: The most mathematically sound thing to do (if you have 200K or more) is to buy a sample (30 or more) stocks on the index through a broker, and your total costs will be about 300 dollars. The one-time fee will be 300 / 200K = 0.0015 = .15 percent. Why aren't they recommending this course of action? Index funds are good because they are "stupid" (because stupid is cheap)...but anybody can do "stupid".
There is wealth to be extracted from people who think they are clever (but aren't) and people who think they are dumb (and are). You can make very good money on the market (1 percent a day or more) by buying on the noise. But this depends on one thing: An upward trend, however small. That upward trend depends only on money flows.
Re: Betting on the GDP. Notice the close similitude between the American and Foreign trends:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=VFINX&l=on&...
...with one rather frightening difference. Obviously, they are reacting to the same things, but one of them is looking unhealthy in a fundamental way.
My investment advice: Buy boxes of young, but good, wine. And cellar them. Only do this, however, if you don't like drinking wine.