Two members can make the same trade, so yes.

a trade is the same as a contract? If it is, won't more than one of the same contract devalue the shares in those contracts?

BTW, there is a typo on the FAQ page 'How much many do I start with?'

Thanks for the comment. I will definitely be adding more information and making the bidding process more "instantly intuitive."

If you're serious, email me details at tomorrow@tomorrowmarket.com. Passwords are encrypted, by the way.

Update: people are confused because the sign up page looks like a log in page because it is so short. You can not log in to Tomorrow Market with any password.

> people are confused because the sign up page looks like a log in page because it is so short. You can not log in to Tomorrow Market with any password.

That was the case. The title suggested if I login with my HN credentials I'll benefit "inifinite private beta spots". I login with my HN username and fake password which worked.

Then I was alerting HN users do not use their real credentials. And got my karma downvoted :D

It's similar, but not the exact same thing. It's supposed to be more social than products like Inkling and InTrade.

Fair enough. This may be something you want to put on your "About" page.

Tomorrow Market is a social prediction market. Hacker News members get to skip the email verification. Let me know what you think.

>> We strongly believe that predicting should be a social activity.

Can you explain more about what the purpose is? I can see why predicting certain things can be important, but after reviewing the "tour" and the issues being discussed, it seems like a game of chance to me. What are the benefits to being involved in a community like this?

Prediction markets* aren't games of chance; they're an economist's tool, an alternative to polls, or an embarassment to prognosticators. Not that they're perfect+.

Even less perfect when I can't find a list or search-box to select among the "symbols" to sell and purchase. Also, the "social" part is difficult when I can't find a place to "discuss" on each contract.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_Market +http://www.slate.com/id/2189135/pagenum/all

All of the symbols are listed on the sidebar. Good idea about contract discussions. That's in the pipeline.

For the community it's a game (with either real or fake money), but the predictions tend to be surprisingly accurate, given a few conditions are met.

It can also be used by large organisations in the decision making process (which is how I presume this could be funded), but I haven't heard of this actually happening in the wild.

More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

edit, better link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

In my mind, there are two main purposes: 1. You can make your prediction public and gain social status for being the most clairvoyant or the best trader, and 2. When the markets stabilize, the prices will give an indication of the likelihood of certain events. The game of making predictions involves chance and skill, and I think there is enough skill to make this game more interesting than Yahtzee.

A related question:

Is the social aspect of this market the difference between it and competitors like http://ppx.popsci.com/ ?

Yes.

Just curious -- how exactly do you know that any given signup is a HN member?

The variable 'special' is set through the URL - my guess is that's it.

It's a social prediction market. Sorry, none of the content is available until you sign up. I want to keep it mostly private until it launches officially.

You've just launched it on Hacker News. Why submit something deliberately concealed?

I want to do things in stages, and the first stage is a private (and somewhat secret) beta.

Just make the decision yourself. You've probably already made it. If you really want us to make the decision for you, you should have made a poll.

Stop procrastinating. Just make something.