Actually, you can just look in Iraq, and CNOOC, PetroChina, and Zhongman. Companies will benefit, just not American ones.
And the US will clearly have failed to protect allies and project force in the Gulf. If the bulk of OPEC moves to a basket currency trade to ally more with PRC, India, and Russia that will be an astonishing failure.
I wouldn't have thought even Trump and this Republican administration was incompetent enough to break the petrodollar, but here we are, just one year in.
Also, don't look at fracking production curves. Bakken and Eagle Ford are foreshadowing the Permian.
I can see this war being mismanaged enough that gulf countries go to sell in yuans straight. After all, aligning with china will prevent further attacks from iran and almost all the stuff being made in the world already sells in yuans.
There used to be a social contract, but now there are so many people that it's a problem that there is no work for the displaced. The leverage between the very small number of people with vast amounts of capital and a large number of people with very little capital or leverage - this is a societal dynamic that has existed before in the world. There is historical precedent for this, and it's probably worth paying very close attention to what comes next if you are a very wealthy person pushing against all forms of wealth redistribution.
Everybody is, not just the pilots. The US ATC system has been in a state of induced crisis since Reagan broke the union's back in the 1980s. Then Trump took office, laid off a bunch of people, cancelled a bunch of hires, and immediately that led to the conditions for the Potomac / DCA collision.
The US is just in an active state of collapse in many areas, including air travel.
Kidnapping the leader of a sovereign nation to put them on show trial and plotting to steal the country's natural resources. Blockading and strangling an island country to the point of economic collapse. Opining out loud about annexing their northern neighbours. The list goes on and on..
This level of doomerism is absurd. Of course the US will survive this administration. I blame the news for making every breathe by whichever opposition seem like the next WWIII.
The land will be there. (most of) people will be there. What parent probably meant is losing everything good and positive United States of America represented in past 80+ years, internally and globally.
That is gone my friend, with the wind like a sulfuric fart, for good. US is becoming a global terrorist and enemy #2 of free world and certainly whole Europe (right after its biggest and only 'friend', russia which coincidentally keeps trying to make you a thing of the past). This comes from somebody who strongly believed in your role in global hegemony despite your numerous well documented fuckups in the past. All on the whims of one visibly mentally sick man, with absolutely nobody standing up to him despite nobody really believing in any of that bullshit. No principles, just plain greed and firm fuck-the-rest approach. Right now, if Europe needs a strong big ally it will be #1 China, and then... nothing.
The fact you voted him in, and he still has massive support, and there has been 0 overthrow attempts of the biggest traitor to US in its history tells me and everybody else in the world many things, but nothing positive. Even if next election, if they will happen, will have 98% win of the democracts with that ridiculous unfair and undemocratic system of yours, it won't change a permanent shift that started and keeps happening. US has no real allies, in same vein russia or China has no real allies.
Empires rise and fall, inevitably, there was never a reason to think US would be an exception.
None of the institutions function, or do the thing that we used to explain to children what they do. The whole thing demonstrably does not exist. You're welcome to describe my view with whatever pejorative you prefer.
> do the thing that we used to explain to children what they do. The whole thing demonstrably does not exist
Something misfunctioning doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. A massive economy, industry and war machine are still here. Pretending that doesn’t exist because it doesn’t work the way we like is an expression of exasperation, not a description of reality.
>A massive economy, industry and war machine are still here
Those things are exactly what destroyed the nation. The military industrial complex and the billionaires who removed the teeth from institutions that used to prevent the accumulation of power (see also: antitrust litigation against Standard Oil). Those entities are now in complete control and democracy is nothing but a sham, a clown show between two faces of the same coin.
The US as a country didn't fail with Trump. It failed when Microsoft got away scot-free. This was the biggest sign that the country was no longer a serious entity, because a serious entity would try to preserve its own power, while the United States of Burgers is something to be sold to the highest bidder.
> Those things are exactly what destroyed the nation
You're confusing the destruction of the dream of a nation with the desrtruction of the nation per se. The Roman Republic's fall was the destructionn of a dream. Those who thought they were witnessing the destruction of a nation, on the other hand, were dead wrong.
No they don't have incentive to cultivate developer goodwill. They are monetizing replacing developers everywhere. That is the trillion-dollar valuation. They have the opposite incentive.
They are not. A very large proportion of their revenue comes from developers. A large proportion of their marketing and product work is aimed at developers. You have to work really hard to not see this. Just look at what Altman and Brockman tweet about.
All the various APM companies are implementing "Assign to agent" flows. The various foundation model providers will be satisfied getting a subscription for 10% of total comp of a developer, instead of pocketing 60% of the total comp completely replacing them?
The only thing that could prevent this is lack of ability to execute, like how Uber wanted to replace drivers with FSD vehicles.
It's not about what they wish would happen, it's about what they think will happen. In my view they are acting precisely like they believe they will be making a proportion of developer pay by making them more productive rather than replacing developers. I think they understand that the alternative doesn't really work out for them or anyone.
Even if they believe that their systems will eventually tank employment and replace developers rather than augment meant, the fate of Astral doesn't matter at all in that scenario because a) nobody has a job, and b) you can build your own uv replacement for $20.
Could it be that they want developers to use their stuff so they get telemetry and mind share out of it? As a stepping stone for the ultimate goals so to speak?
Sometimes criminals are unethical and lie, sometimes they are not smart or empathetic enough to accept they are causing harm to people. This is not some challenge to help them bridge that gap to understand, it is just why police are allowed to use force to imprison people that break the law and harm others.
And massive oil resources. As a result of this, one of the wealthiest sovereign wealth funds on the planet, which they manage well and for the good of the country.
Their hydro energy company is an aluminum company company, they have so much slack power they export it refining bauxite.
It is worth repeating solar panels covering an area about the size of NH generate enough power to supply all current entire US energy needs.
It's going to kill the software industry as we know it!
We're literally killing our field by making the devices and internet so repulsive that people are actively unplugging. You can't hear about this online because the bot generated content is filling the gap and the people doing it aren't online to tell you about it.
Children are getting addicted to everything because the internet has killed any sense of self-stimulation and they are growing up into gamblers with cards, sports, and prediction markets or rage-addicted media consumers.
There is plenty of human connection to be had out there, it is free, and all you have to do is put down the phone or computer. It is getting extremely compelling as an alternative for increasing large groups of people.
The tech industry is energetically strangling its golden goose.
I think that's just a good old prisoner dilemma. You can't have a free-range golden goose, because if you grow it responsibly, others will abuse it first and you will get out of business. The only way is to be as greedy as legally allowed, because otherwise you're left behind.
The US is doing much, much worse. This is no compliment to China. The US
* murdered a political leader the were negotiating with in Iran after using the military to kidnap the leader of Venezuela.
* is credibly threatening military allies in Greenland, countries with which it has mutual protection treaties and is credibly threatening, without casus belli, to militarily invade another weaker neighbor, Cuba.
* spent months threatening to invade Canada. This wasn't trolling, it is forgotten with their strategy of constant chaos, but they really tried and Canada has made alliances with other countries as a result
* is actively murdering thousands of people in Haiti via a Republican allied private military contractor
* is actively subverting domestic elections
* is building and filling concentration camps with people who have committed no other crime than illegal residency, without due process, and giving them substandard care, leading to many deaths in custody.
* has masked secret police detaining people without due process and deporting them to foreign prison camps, frequently in violation of judicial orders
* has masked secret police arresting citizen because of their nationality and because they are not carrying "their papers"
* is using the power of government to force mergers and ownership changes of corporations to political allies
* is using the power of the government to hide an embarrassing a criminal conspiracy involving leadership in the country, in violation of the US Constitution, since it was ordered by Congress.
* has completely disregarded conflict of interest laws which the leader of the country is using to enrich himself and his family at completely unprecedented levels in US history.
I could go on, but China is a more ethical superpower by a lot of measures and that is a very painful conclusion to state.
This is not even touching on the subject of competency.
The internationally accepted US hegemony and the privileged role of the US dollar was the result of almost a century of goodwill. It is now gone, and then some. The next two decades will not be pleasant for regular Americans who have grown accustomed to, and frankly taken for granted, the level of privilege they had.
edit: and speak of the devil, and competency: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/what-happens-w... just made it to the top of the front page. Even with everything I wrote above, I had neglected to include that the US lies about embarrassing economic data now due to political intererence.
edit 2: this didn't even make the front page and would have been the biggest scandal in modern American history: https://www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-deal-fee-trump-administratio... "Trump Administration Set to Receive $10 Billion Fee for Brokering TikTok Deal"
And the US will clearly have failed to protect allies and project force in the Gulf. If the bulk of OPEC moves to a basket currency trade to ally more with PRC, India, and Russia that will be an astonishing failure.
I wouldn't have thought even Trump and this Republican administration was incompetent enough to break the petrodollar, but here we are, just one year in.
Also, don't look at fracking production curves. Bakken and Eagle Ford are foreshadowing the Permian.
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