A caveat being and mentioned in the article, that sailors didn't have access to the safe water of lakes and streams, thus beer. And as someone mentions below, it's safer to drink low alcohol beer than months old (untreated) water. I can see why people jump to the conclusion that beer was safer than water...and it makes for good cocktail hour small talk.
> sailors didn't have access to the safe water of lakes and streams
As if the water of lakes and streams was necessarily safe. Imagine drinking Thames water in the era before proper sewers. In 1858 (the Great Stink) the Thames stank so badly from feces that parts of Parliament became unusable.
I don't know his intention or whether The Register just framed his words to align with a political viewpoint. Perhaps it's nothing more than one industry person taking shots at their rival... but I'm having a hard time reconciling his current statement with his previous statements, specifically about the CHIPS Act and US manufacturing.
"Gelsinger added on the CHIPS Act: "Supply chains move because they're advantaged. So in that sense, I see chips [making], plus some of the economic inducements, as being a formula that I fully agree with looking forward. But we can't go backward on what we put in place for the CHIPS Act. We need to continue to restore manufacturing. We need long-term research and development." (https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-companies/former-i...)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13
- "by assessing values at their 1976 value and restricted annual increases of assessed value to an inflation factor, not to exceed 2% per year. It prohibits reassessment of a new base year value except in cases of (a) change in ownership, or (b) completion of new construction."
He's an economist that covers this for the Brewers Association. Based on the data, it's not looking good. Some of it is released in public reports and presos, others are member-only resources.
Here's a report from the TTB that shows the contraction:
The old machinery (rose engine) and technique (guilloché) sent me down a pleasant rabbit hole, but the tldr:
Self-taught watchmaker turns hobby into profession and hopes to reintroduce "(mostly) made in America" watches. They retail in the tens of thousands of dollars.
"Several previous evaluations (Ioannidis, 2021a; Levin et al., 2020; O’Driscoll et al., 2021; Brazeau et al., 2020) have already synthesized information on age-stratified estimates of IFR. Most of those used data from early published studies, and these tended to have information from mostly hard hit countries, thus potentially with inflated IFR estimates. Moreover, several analytical and design choices for these reviews and data syntheses can be contested (Ioannidis, 2021b) and many more potentially informative seroprevalence studies have been published since then."
If it’s security training for developers, architects, and technical teams take a look into the CTF style trainings (hands on keyboard, hacking exercises). We’ve turned it into an annual event (leaderboards, trophies, bragging rights, swag, pizza, the works) and the participants not only loved it, they have started to pregame, plan teams and held live debriefs where they talk through the experience and where it actually impacts their code.
Timely. We just, as in a few hours ago, wrapped up our season as owners of a u-cut tree farm. It's relatively small, just under 30 acres. But our family was just doing a post-mortem on what went well, what we need to change and making fairly detailed plans for next year and even several years out. I can tell you more then you want to know about the growing, spring/summer and fall care. The shaping. The labor to trim, drill, bag, etc. It's fascinating to see the impact 2008 had on planting and the resulting shortage of trees these past couple of years. I don't have any real point other than, been there, doing that, have the t-shirt, ask me anything. Oh, and this part of the farm is basically a side hustle to my normal 9-5 infosec job. Merry Christmas!
Are attractions at tree farms (that is to say, everything aside from trees) typically first-party (you) or external contractors?
I'd be fascinated in the experience value-add economics.
Said as someone who today bought a U-Cut 8' cypress ($56) at a local tree farm, a train ride (2x $2), baling ($2), three drinks + brownie + boiled peanuts (~$12). Thankfully, letting two quarantine-bored teenagers ride in the back of my truck around the farm was free. ;-)
Our place currently has limited attractions with several planned for next year. There is a gift shop that drives significant revenue, but was closed this year due to COVID. We offer free hot chocolate (small disposable cup). For the gift shop we have a multifaceted approach which includes buying things wholesale, making items in our shop, and partnering with other makers. Drilling and bailing is included in the price of the tree.
We are currently running the numbers to prepare for things like food/drink truck, sleigh rides, reindeer petting zoo, and some events.
Thanks for responding to all the questions her. Fascinating business!
And fwiw, the narrow-gauge railroad got a lot of attention from the kids. Not sure on the maintenance (especially per track-foot), but the engine appeared to have been homemade -- if you've had a burning desire to repurpose a small diesel.
We actually discussed a small train and decided to go with horse and sleigh next year, mostly because of upkeep and the ability to reuse that portion of the property for other things in the off season.
What's the strategy (both logistically and financially) for dealing with the 8-10 year maturity cycle of the trees? Also, I'd imagine it provides some moat for preventing new competition into the market.
For us, the biggest issue is trying to forecast what additional non-agricultural projects we may be starting in the near future that would be adversely impacted by a specific piece of land being tied up for 10 years. For example, we're building an event center (weddings, meetings, etc) that will also include outdoor space. As we work through what that will be like, we have to anticipate how that outdoor space would be used if there are trees there or not. Other than that specific example, we try to anticipate sales volumes and then map out the experience...then order, plant and maintain new trees accordingly.
By the way if you're looking for additional income streams, I know a place that does huge business with "pumpkin picking" (they buy commercial pumpkins and throw them on the ground in their property) as well as easter egg hunts (sample principle, with eggs with toys inside). It could work for you.
This gets into a bigger conversation about business models. For us, we are selling an experience that includes a tree. Artificial trees will not be able to replace that. But selling an experience is a low volume game and the revenue has to either be made up in price or via the addition of alternative revenue streams.
Is theft/security an issue for you? Mature Christmas trees must be one of the highest-value crops you can steal from a farm, and one of the easiest to fence.
There are pros and cons to the different business models, but in this case, if you think of it as a matching/sorting type of problem, it's inefficient and wasteful, in a logistical/Nash equilibrium sort of way.
Which doesn't always mean it's the wrong way, from a business perspective. But if you're charging by height, it's leaving money on the table.
It's not an issue on our farm. We have eyes on most of the property most of the time. We also don't stock any precuts, so a thief has to come on the property and do some amount of work to steal a single tree.
>Mature Christmas trees must be one of the highest-value crops you can steal from a farm
If you have the equipment/motivation to steal christmas trees, you probably could be stealing animals too. Those are proabbly worth even more than christmas trees, probably several hundred dollars each.
Harder to dispose of, though. You'll need to be in league with a crooked farmer, slaughterhouse or livestock mart if you want to sell the animal alive. You can sell Christmas trees on the side of the road, no questions asked.
We cut our season off early due to the number of mature trees available. We're rebuilding and playing catchup. It was more important, particularly this year, that we were open rather than how many days. We get families that have been coming here for 30 years. If we miss a year being open, we risk losing them from coming back in the next few years. Our second metric was number of trees sold per day. We did meet or exceed both measurements.
My family tree farm has been closed over 20 years, and people still just show up looking for trees. About an hour drive from the (major) city. Sometimes while we're in the middle of Thanksgiving dinner.
Childhood memories are a strong psychological force.
My youngest child was obsessed with Minecraft. To the point I decided to check it out, ended up running a server where he and I and my two adult children could play. This lasted a year or so, before they moved to Fortnite. I joined them. I'm a good shot but can't keep up with the end-game build battles. Point is, games come and go. My kid and your kid is no better or worse for liking any particular game at any time. Just know it's coming...and going and enjoy it while you can.
