Claude Code is IMO the benchmark today. For all of the various contexts I’ve used it in it has mostly oneshot the tasks I’ve given it and is very user friendly for someone who is not a professional software engineer. To the extent it fails I can usually figure out quickly why and correct it at a high level.
I think Codex is a better fit for professional software engineers. It's able to one-shot larger, more complex tasks than Claude and also does better context management which is really important in a large codebase.
On the other hand, I think Claude is more friendly/readable and also still better at producing out-of-the-box nice looking frontend.
I think this is where we might have differing opinions. I'm a CTO by profession and I know what bad code is, so it is quite easy for me, based on my professional experience, point out when Claude generates bad code. And when you point it out, or ask it why it didn't take the correct/simpler approach - the response is always along the lines of "Oops, sorry!" or "You're absolutely right to question that..."
One of the most robust findings in labor economics is that in the long run capital and labor are complements, not substitutes. What this means is that over time, as capital productivity has increased, demand for both capital and labor has increased, rather than demand for labor falling while demand for capital increased. I'm skeptical that AI will be different than all of the previous inventions of the industrial era in this regard.
I don't believe demand for labour has increased. We used to force children as young as 6 to enter the labour force, and people used to work 6.5 days per week. Demand for labour has been in free fall since the 1970, evidenced by stagnant wages in most of the developed world. Furthermore capital is accumulating at the top as the capital owners use their position to extract it from the people below them. AI will only accelerate this. We are in for some interesting times for sure.
Not near as much as you'd like to believe. It takes years for us to grow up, get an education and become useful. Changing what we do can be quite difficult, especially with the time and monetary costs of doing so. Plus inroads by technology can wipe jobs quickly even if they'll eventually be replaced.
When you have a bunch of people scared that they'll starve tomorrow society will fall apart (even more than it has). The rise to authoritarianism will lead to rather bad outcomes in the medium term.
Apollo put a lot more burden on the Service Module than Artemis plans to put on the Orion. Apollo put the CSM/LM into a low lunar orbit while Artemis plans to put Orion into a high lunar orbit and make the Starship carry a lot more delta-V to land from a much higher velocity (and then accelerate back up to that velocity when coming back).
On top of that there weren’t really solar panels in the 1960s so the Service Module had to carry tons of chemicals to produce electricity, as well as extra fuel for all of that weight. As a result it was massively overbuilt compared to anything we’d try today and even so had to take an expedited flight path to the moon of 3 days in order to conserve operational lifetime. Artemis does not have nearly as severe constraints on either the Orion or the future Starship and so can afford to take a more fuel efficient 5 day coast up to the Moon and make the design tradeoffs on Orion that that entails.
NASA has been well treated by both parties in general, with their budget rising faster than inflation most years. This administration also appointed Isaacman to be the NASA administrator which I think is a 10/10 choice for that job.
I’d argue that NASA should not have ever got into studying climate science, it should be a responsibility of NOAA. NASA should be focusing on NEP, atmospheric satellites, better aircraft, making life interplanetary and astronomy.
It’s not that simple. Trump admin requested a massive cut to NASA’s budget, which after much delay Congress finally rejected. Isaacman’s path to NASA administrator was also, erm, circuitous. Having a competent and knowledgeable NASA head was not really Trump admin’s priority.
From the news I’ve read the most “embarrassing” things in his personal email are photos of him smoking cigars, holding a bottle of rum, and posing in front of a supercar. What a scandal…
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