Have an upvote. I have landlines for my kids. It was fun for about two weeks, then they had friends with FaceTime and you’re not able to compete with real time video conferencing.
It seems overly pessimistic about education. Book learning isn't everything, but a physics textbook could be seen as the compression of centuries of experience.
Book learning to me seems like a compression of knowledge that had to be acquired through many years of experimentation and observation. But knowledge is not an experience itself.
Take juggling for example - something that was on HN homepage last week. You can learn everything you need to know about juggling though a post or a book or an educational video. But can you juggle after all that book learning? Not at all - to be able to juggle one has to spend time practicing and no amount of reading can help meaningfully compress that process.
Muscle memory required for juggling is not a 1:1 correlation to experience, but I feel like it's close enough to it.
I don't know. Growing up and seeing life and people around me I firmly believe that if you have enough brain power and intuition for $TOPIC you can speed-run it. At the same time, with time and experience and doing/re-doing it, you will learn or master $TOPIC [1] even with less brain power.
[1] Depending on the topic and the level of knowledge of it.
Maybe it's just muscle-memory, but clearly there are brains which develop it 100x faster than others, depending on the topic. See the aforementioned Mozart and the music topic. I think there are a lot of young and not so young adults whose peak performance in instrument playing is equal to Mozart's at age 8.
It can be but it can also be derived by raw brain power, IMO, and that's my point. You can understand how something work by simulating many mental models quickly in your mind, comparing them and deciding the one that makes more sense, or you can be overwhelmed by doing this and be unsuccessful at it. But with the years and experience you actually distill that understanding, and you are able to apply it to other similar topics as well.
Who do you trust with the keys?
In any well run organization you have multiple layers of controls. The same concept applies here and I think the gp commenter captured it very well.
I think you'd trust someone with the keys when they've consistently shown that they can be trusted with less critical work. If you're having to constantly monitor someone's output, then promoting them is a liability.
The same applies to an AI model.
And, since the same model would be deployed by many teams, unexpected behavior from that model even for a small subset of those teams means that it can't be promoted.
> In any well run organization you have multiple layers of controls.
Everything depends on size.
A business with 8 employees might need 3 of them to be (literal) keyholders, and might be situated such that any of the keyholders has it in their power to destroy the business.
This is not ideal, obviously, but it is how the world has worked for a very long time, and it is difficult to understand how to make it better in some cases. Modern technology, such as cameras, might help, or might simply help to allocate blame after destruction has occurred.
In any case, this is the background of how people are used to working. We all deal with people who can absolutely destroy us, starting with the cop on the corner.
And we have mechanisms, both before-the-fact, like social coercion, and after-the-fact, like the legal system, to help ensure that this usually works.
LLMs exist in a world where most people are used to extending trust, but it isn't possible for LLMs to conform to the historical expectations that underpin that trust.
> Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces.
It hasn't happened in this case. Your example has causality reversed. Khamenei wasn't killed because there was a prediction market about the political leadership of Iran.
It is interesting, though, that a large bet was placed not long before the assassination attempt that paid out $550k. By definition, killing the leader does imply that they are no longer the political leader of the country.
It is entirely possible that there was causality in the forward direction if the bettor had inside information about the assassination operation beforehand.
Inside information is not the same as causing the outcome.
I knew my previous employer was getting acquired before the markets did -- I had inside information -- but I had no way to make the deal go through.
Revealing inside information through prediction markets is mostly fine. You may think people shouldn't need a financial incentive to do so but clearly they do, and clearly other people are willing to put up with that money for it.
The simple act of leaving a private social media website is enough to “alienate” people who would otherwise be supportive? Making membership in a private social media website contribute so heavily to your personal identity seems like more of a reflection on that person than anything else.
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