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> in the same way that you'll probably survive one round of Russian roulette

Is that with or without spinning the chamber between rounds? The odds are worse if you spin each time. They get worse as the game goes on if you don't spin.


> The odds are worse if you spin each time.

How do they get worse if you spin? It’s still 1/6 odds of dying,iid events.


Erm no. If it goes a round and gets passed without spinning, the chances change of course. It is 1/6, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, .. 1

I didn't think of the gun getting passed around. To me, "one round" is pulling the trigger once after spinning the cylinder with one bullet. 1-in-6 chance of dying, you'll probably live. That's how I feel about this mission, I think they'll probably live, but man I'm nervous.

... 1/0

It's 6/11 overall chance of dying if spinning, no?

From a quick search, this page explains it: https://mathworld.wolfram.com/RussianRoulette.html


Dude, it's a nerd-snipe conversation derailing attempt. Don't take the bait.

Talk about space stuff here, not the statistical nature of Russian roulette.


How about don't tell other people what they can and can't talk about, and just ignore side threads you don't care about?

There are about 500 different HN browser extensions that let you collapse threads, btw.


Not parent, but I am genuinely curious: is there a Hacker News browser extension you'd recommend? The text is so small by default that even though I'd like to read on my desktop, I typically only browse it via the Hacki android app.

I vibe-coded one using one of the web-based tools (I think Replit?) maybe a year and a half ago. Just added vote tracking by username, tagging, colored usernames, that sort of thing. Only took a on average 1-2 prompts per feature, I did it in under an hour start to finish.

It's quite telling that all the replies you're getting are about "hope" and "jobs" with no actual scientific reason. I guess we're taxing people for vanity space missions and jobs programs. Makes sense.

This reminds me of UVB-76[0], a shortwave military radio in Russia. It would be interesting know why they're using this method to communicate covertly rather than beaming down messages to a phone via satellite or something. I'm not an expert on radios, though, so maybe it's not as clunky as I'm imagining where an undercover asset is hauling around bulky equipment.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UVB-76


It’s simple, reliable, and effective. Shortwave receivers can be made fairly compact. They’re also very prevalent in most countries (every ham transciever), so there’s nothing suspicious to pack. People find numbers stations interesting, so they are often streamed online. One time pads have their logistical shortcomings, but are still the best encryption possible. The OTP can be compromised in known, visible ways, where a phone has myriad invisible ways to be compromised.

You could probably cheat with the one time pad and use a book as a key, pick a pre determined starting point go diagonally down accross the page convert the letters to numbers and xor that against the message. It would be near enough to random and less conspicuous than a pad of random numbers when searched.

That feels like something that could suffer from frequency analysis.

It's called a book cipher and it is definitely subject to various statistical attacks, especially if you have a list of almost all books.

You could probably do something to increase the apparent entropy like xoringing it with an irrational number like tao or pi starting with a digit determined by the date.

Like the article says, satellite messages can be traced while radio is broadcast to everyone so it's impossible to find out who's listening. Shortwave radios are also cheap and widespread, so it's easy to get one anywhere in the world and if your house gets searched, it won't be suspicious if you have one.

> Shortwave radios are also cheap and widespread, so it's easy to get one anywhere in the world

I always hear this in discussions about number stations, but I don't think this is true in the US. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen a general consumer "shortwave radio". Unless the regular AM band counts, which seems to be medium wave.


The term for shortwave radios targeting the general consumer market is "world band radio". They look like a standard portable AM/FM radio except they'll also pick up long wave, medium wave, short wave, and maybe weather band. They're more of a niche in the US now that internet streaming is a thing, but you should still be able to get one at most electronics stores. Of course like most niche products, you'll get much better selection and pricing online.

I'm in the US. At least half of the people I know own shortwave radios, although most don't think of them as "shortwave radios". They're more often called "world radios" or some other such synonym. I could run out to a consumer electronics store right now and buy one.

The younger people I know tend to own such a radio in the form of the Baofeng UV-5R or the like.


It's interesting because I wasn't aware of these "world radios" either. Maybe because I'm 34 and they lost popularity before I came of age? I have a ham radio license but I wouldn't consider those radios to be aimed at the ordinary consumer.

A Baofeng UV-5R cannot receive shortwave, it's in the VHF/UHF range for receive/transmit and can receive commercial FM broadcast.

Ah, true. My mistake.

I used to have little battery powered AM/FM/Shortwave/weather radio lost it a couple house moveings ago. Kept it around for the emergacy weather radio during flood events and other extreme weather when internet/power isnt reliable. Should probably pick up a replacement come to think of it.

def a niche consumer item these days. but pretty easy to make your own.

Satellite unicast receivers also can't be located. Iridium pagers were (maybe still are?) a thing, for example.

However, carrying one of these is probably highly suspicious compared to a world band radio receiver.


> Like the article says, satellite messages can be traced while radio is broadcast to everyone

I don't buy it.

Satellite downlinks are broadcast to everyone under a potentially massive footprint. Take a look at the footprint for QO-100 which you could use with very inexpensive equipment that looks pretty much like a normal satellite TV dish.

https://jeremyclark.ca/wp/telecom/sdr-for-qo-100-satellite-r...


Phones usually contain the hardware for radio too, so making sure agents have some set of models for that doesn't sound bad. Even if you had to use a dedicated one having a radio at home isn't that conspicuous? Or in a car, etc

a consumer phone usually would only have an FM receiver

ooh, new fodder for conspiracies about electric cars not having AM radios :-)

perhaps they're not directed at deeply embedded lone spies with radios in their attics, but at 'military assets' which as a matter of course can receive these transmissions on a designated schedule.

A quarter of steel used in the U.S. is imported, and of that quarter, 40% comes from Mexico and Canada; very little comes from China[0]. So, not only does your point fall flat, the people we get steel from are our neighbors so it'd make sense to not sour with relationships with them like the current admin is doing with chaotic trade policy and invasion threats.

I really don't understand the FUD around US manufacturing capability, you'd essentially need to craft the greatest conspiracy ever to think that every politician, defense agency, intelligence agency, etc. is asleep at the wheel to not recognize this supposed threat and do nothing about it.

0: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/where-does-us-ge...


> 40% comes from Mexico and Canada

Where do you think this originates from?

China ships a rather large amount of stuff to these countries to take advantage of the trade agreements. So much that you can find satellite images of large yards in Mexico that are used for this purpose with barely any effort.


Okay, let's assume most of their steel is Chinese (I have my doubts because, yet again, more conspiracies), we only import a quarter of the steel we use. That would hurt losing it overnight, sure, but we wouldn't be absolutely toast like the autarkists are saying.

These takes are much more doomer than I'm willing to bet the supporters of "bring everything back" realize. Do you have no faith in the US economy / populace adapting to a hypothetical all out war with China?


Personally I have little to no faith in the adaptability of the US workforce for such things. It would be a generational shift. Exceedingly few people even have basic mechanical skills these days.

It’s not like WWII where you have a majority population that works on the farm or in a factory with their hands, and at home fixing stuff that breaks. That sort of population can be rapidly redeployed. We would need to start from the basics like “how to turn a screwdriver” for a huge portion of the workforce.

When you really start looking into things, nearly everything points back to China at some point. Pharmaceuticals? The APIs or at least important precursors largely originate there - even if they hit a middleman country first. Then you get into basic components and it’s the same story. That part from India or Mexico might not be available without China as a backstop.

It’s not an impossible problem, but it’s a problem that took decades and a generation or two to destroy. It’s far easier and quicker to destroy things than build them.


Have you heard about the great toilet paper scarcity of 2020 during covid? and facemasks? US couldn't make either toilet paper or facemasks or ventilators or build hospital beds or anything that matters when the entire economy was at risk of shutdown.

I have a feeling that China doesn't export much steel. They more likely export their steel in the form of finished products.

Fat std library mistakes/warts would likely result in third party packages being used anyway.

Not necessarily, but let's agree that some design faults would happen: you still get the option to use the solid, boring and slightly rusty std instead of another 100 dependencies from the supply chain supermarket.

At work, we're happy with Python's included batteries when we need to make scripts instead of large programs.


So it provides another option, and in worst case it doesn't make situation worse than it is right now?

Yeah, pretty bad idea.


If you're going to gamble on $TSLA, shorting is probably the worst way to do so. It has unlimited downside (well, at least as much your broker allows before margin calling)

If you want to gamble, buy put options and size according to how much money you're okay with losing (the premium is all you pay)


True short positions are out of reach for basically any normal investor except those with completely broken risk tolerances (selling unbacked call options), eg the degen gamblers of r/wallstreetbets.

Do you want another authoritarian, corrupt, cult of personality leader like Trump? Proclaiming "both sides" and ignoring nuance like you're doing is how no one gets held accountable for the real harms that are taking place. Please stop holding water for the MAGAs/GOP.

America has had even more corrupt/authoritarian/cult of personality leaders than Trump. They were younger and their brains still worked so they did way more damage than trump too. Most Americans just don't learn much history so can't compare.

> America has had even more corrupt/authoritarian/cult of personality leaders than Trump.

Like who?


Andrew Jackson to this day is a darling among conservatives in America.

> I want to be able to talk to my family, but I don't want to buy an iPhone

How were you not able to do this without an iPhone?


iMessage being a closed ecosystem. Apple finally added RCS support, but only after regulatory pressure.

To not recognise this as a limitation is to be wilfully blind to network effects. The "green bubbles" issue was a huge issue in the US. Similarly, WhatsApp not being open is a huge problem in forcing people onto Meta's platforms.


> This obsession with copyrights between different free software ecosystems - who put the lawyers in charge?

This comment on the article is spot on. I don't vibe code or care about AI really, but it's so exhausting to see people playing lawyer in threads about LLM-generated code. No one knows, a ton of people are using LLMs, the companies behind these models torrented content themselves, and why would you spend your time defending copyright / use it as a tool to spread FUD? Copyright is a made up concept that exists to kill competition and protect those who suck at executing on ideas.


There is so much corruption and impropriety in this administration that skeletons don't matter anymore. Looking at what sunk officials in previous administrations provides a sense for just how far gone we are, but it's not an indicator of what future consequences will be.

Dan Quayle lost a serious bid because he couldn't spell potato.

Now look at where we're at. It really is wild. Right, wrong, or indifferent. How far we've shifted is absolutely wild.


Dan Quayle also had the charisma of a potato. Let's not overfit this curve.

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