I understood the argument like this: If there is a bet going that a war doesn't start, and you're able to start said war... Then everyone betting on the war not starting is effectively providing venture capital funds for you to start that war.
So if eg. 20 mil is bet on it not starting, the actor holding the proverbial trigger only needs to "invest" sufficient funds to drain the bet and then capitalize on it by pulling the trigger, everyone being against it would've effectively invested into the war
The analogy breaks apart at VC, because they're expecting payout after successful funding, which this doesn't provide.
I think it's more like Kickstarter/crowdfunding for wars. Just as fucked up though
(The "start a war" setting I'm using here is just to illustrate the point. There are a lot more granular bets going on like (place) will be contested etc, effectively creating money pools for offensives)
There's not enough liquidity on polymarket for that. However there's enough liquidity on stock market and indeed it appears that there was a lot of insider trading around start of the war and ceasefire. Polymarket is really pennies when it comes to bets that can be also realized on the stock market.
you can buy finger sleves on eg Amazon and any other shop. They're super cheap and work well / entirely resolves that issue
He probably doesn't want it, because he probably just doesn't want to interface with the phone ... Which is fine, I'm just pointing out that the quoted issue has an easy solution.
Fwiw, the real reason we don't have 100+ GB GPUs is because Nvidia likes to segment their markets. They could sell the consumer cards with 200gb gddr RAM on it, they just know that'd eat into their enterprise offering which is quiet literally all their profit margin (which I may add is gargantuan as of 2025)
Personally I just switched to TKL keyboards (no numpad). While I did use it occasionally, it wasn't often enough to feel inconvenienced without it... All the buttons are still there after all, and if I'm already at home row, it isn't any slower.
May be worth considering too, especially if you're looking for a good keyboard with eg magnetic switches vs shitty rubberdome
I grew up on the internet but early enough that the phrase “the internet isn’t real life” was bandied about, which I think made it easier to understand the different set of rules existing.
The Internet is real life, that's why the judicial documents will cite the real names of the people, wherever they want to or not.
There aren't different sets of rules, the real lifea rules apply everywhere. You may just also have additional conventions some people may follow online, too. Entirely optional and liable to go out the window as soon as there is a conflict
Fwiw, the article mirrors my experience when I started out too, even exactly with the same first month of vibecoding, then the next project which I did exactly like he outlined too.
Personally, I think it's just the natural flow when you're starting out. If he keeps going, his opinion is going to change and as he gets to know it better, he'll likely go more and more towards vibecoding again.
It's hard to say why, but you get better at it. Even if it's really hard to really put into words why
It's a little like asking a cokehead how the addiction is going for him while he is high. Obviously he's going to say it's great because the consequences haven't hit him. Some percentage of addicts will never realize it was a problem at all.
Its not random that AI happens to be built by the very same people that turned internet forums into the most addictive communication technology ever.
> he'll likely go more and more towards vibecoding again
I think "more and more" is doing some very heavy lifting here. On the surface it reads like "a lot" to many people, I think, which is why this is hard to read without cringing a bit. Read like that it comes off as "It's very addictive and eventually you get lulled into accepting nonsense again, except I haven't realized that's what's happening".
But the truth is that this comment really relies entirely on what "more and more" means here.
You can’t put it into words? Why? Perhaps you haven’t looked at it objectively?
It may actually be true. Your feeling might be right - but I strongly caution you against trusting that feeling until you can explain it. Something you can’t explain is something you don’t understand.
have you ever learned a skill?
Like carving, singing, playing guitar, playing a video game, anything?
It's easy to get better at it without understanding why you're better at it. As a matter of fact, very very few people master the discipline enough to be able to grasp the reason for why they're actually better
Most people just come up with random shit which may or may not be related. Which I just abstained from.
I've learned a number of skills, and for me none of them worked in the way you're describing. I didn't learn to cut good miter joints by randomly vibe-sawing wood until I unlocked miter joints in the skill tree. I carefully studied the errors I made, and adjusted in ways I thought might correct them, some of which helped some of which did not. Then eventually I understood the relationship between my actions and the underlying principles in enough detail to consistently hit 45 degrees.
Isn't that example pretty reductive, in that you have a directly-measurable output? I mean, the joint is either 45° (well, 90°) or it's not. Zoom out a bit, and the skill-set becomes much less definable: are my cabinets good - for some intersection of well-proportioned, elegantly-finished, and fit for purpose, with well-chosen wood and appropriate hardware.
Mind you, I don't think the process of improvement in those dimensions is fundamentally different, just much less direct and not easily (or perhaps even at all) articulable.
You can get better at something without understanding why, but you should be able to think about it and determine why fairly easily.
This is something everyone who cares about improving in a skill does regularly - examine their improvement, the reasons behind it, and how to add to them. That’s the basis of self-driven learning.
This is an absurd statement. There are many complex undertakings in sport where even the very best get better with practice and can't tell you why. In fact, the ones who think they can tell you why are the one's to be most skeptical of.
You are just making stuff up or regurgitating material from a pop science book.
Not really. I can obviously say something, like you learn which features the models are able to actually implement, and you learn how to phrase and approach trickier features to get the model too do what you want.
And that's not really explainable without exploring specific examples. And now we're in thousands of words of explanation territory, hence my decision to say it's hard to put it into words.
I think you’re handwaving away vague, ungrounded intuition and calling it learning.
For instance, if I say “I noticed I run better in my blue shoes than my red shoes” I did not learn anything. If I examine my shoes and notice that my blue shoes have a cushioned sole, while my red shoes are flat, I can combine that with thinking about how I run and learn that cushioned soles cause less fatigue to the muscles in my feet and ankles.
The reason the difference matters is because if I don’t do the learning step, when buy another pair of blue shoes but they’re flat soled, I’m back to square one.
Back to the real scenario, if you hold on to your ungrounded intuition re what tricks and phrasing work without understanding why, you may find those don’t work at all on a new model version or when forced to change to a different product due to price, insolvency, etc.
You're always free to stop at the level of abstraction at which you find a certain answer to be satisfying, but you can also keep digging. Why are flat shoes better? Well, it's to do with my gait. Ok, but why is my gait like that? Something-something musculoskeletal. Why is my body that way? Something-something genetic. OK, but why is that? And so on.
Pursued far enough, any line of thought will reach something non-deterministic - or, simply, That's The Way It Is - however unsatisfying that is to those of us who crave straightforward answers. Like it or not, our ground truth as human beings ultimately rests on intuition. (Feel free to say, "No, it's physics", or "No, it's maths", but I'll ask you if you're doing those calculations in your head as you run!)
It is very silly to treat zero grounding the same as accepting core, proven concepts. Your PoV here is no different than saying "It rains because god is sad and crying" is an appropriate thing to believe.
If you want to say "god is responsible for creating the precipitation cycle", sure. But we don't disregard understanding that exists to substitute intuition.
We're talking past each other, and mixing up some concepts, most of which is my fault for not writing particularly clearly.
Yeah, "God did it" is the first of those answer layers at which some people stop interrogating the world around them, just like "that's just the way I am" is where some people stop developing their self-understanding. Neither of those answers advance civilization / ourselves any further than the status quo. They're terrible answers! Everyone should be digging deeper.
However, I would not use the word "understanding" in opposition to "intuition". Someone who can generate a ballistics chart understands trajectories, but so does someone who can reliably put a basketball through a hoop or a bullet on target. I would set "analysis" against "intuition" (or "instinct", if you prefer), but they're not in opposition: instead, they reinforce each other. We're all familiar with the scientists and mathematicians who ride a hunch to a ground-breaking discovery, which is then validated by exhaustive analysis. From the other direction, athletes and musicians analyze their technique in minute detail, and practice incessantly, in order to ingrain analytical insights into instinct. (Or, if you prefer a less physical example, programmers study algorithms so that they can intuit which to apply to a particular problem.)
My point - badly expressed in my earlier comment - is that as humans we exist moment-by-moment, and as such react, in each moment, by intuition. As important as analysis is, we cannot live in analytical mode: it lags too much! Furthermore, approximately none of us will ever make a groundbreaking discovery in any field, far less in all of the areas to which we can (and should!) direct our analytical energy. At some point we have to stop (even if we are a groundbreaking genius in one area, we'll have to in all of the others), and accept the answer that satisfys our purpose or exhausts our motivation.
So if eg. 20 mil is bet on it not starting, the actor holding the proverbial trigger only needs to "invest" sufficient funds to drain the bet and then capitalize on it by pulling the trigger, everyone being against it would've effectively invested into the war
The analogy breaks apart at VC, because they're expecting payout after successful funding, which this doesn't provide.
I think it's more like Kickstarter/crowdfunding for wars. Just as fucked up though
(The "start a war" setting I'm using here is just to illustrate the point. There are a lot more granular bets going on like (place) will be contested etc, effectively creating money pools for offensives)
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