I do not see Iran winning this. The current government is also hated by the people who would very much like to see all of them dead.
Al Jazeera has some very good insights into this, and the gist of it is: the Iranian regime is in a fight for its life with nothing to lose. If they are degraded enough, a revolution will start in Iran and they will be killed by the people. Or by US/IL bombs - whichever comes first. There is no way they get out of this alive. They are trying to prolong the inevitable.
This is the same mistake as made in Iraq and Syria by media policy pundits. Dictatorial regimes collapse pretty quickly without a significant base of support enough to stop a revolution happening. They might not have a majority of people supporting but it isn't a democracy. Dictatorial regimes will always have one or more of military, business, or sub-groups of citizens in their pockets as clients.
Whenever we say "the regime is hated by it's people it will collapse" it should be asked "then why didn't it collapse already?". In Iran metropolitan areas are where you see opposition. That's also where people have cameras and media orgs tend to be. We get a warped depiction of opposition in Iran even without our own media's baggage. Meanwhile the power base of Iran is everywhere but metropolitan cities. And there's a lot of clients who benefit from the regime. I think this might be worse than the sectarian violence that came out of the Hussein regimes collapse because the Sunni sect his base was built around was still a minority. This time it's the majority and the people being fought against are the Americans, the Israelis and the Arabs so their backs are against the wall this is a total war already from their side.
No. Iran has almost all of its population part of the same ethnic group, which in Libya it was not true: all the tribes started fighting each other.
It does not an established opposition because the current regime has the habit of killing anyone it doesn't like or goes against the official line. Now there is a chance for opposition to form.
Iran has significant Kurdish, Azeri, Baluchi and Arab minorities, Persians form cca 2/3 of the population.
With the US & Israel supporting the minorities (most likely offering them independence), in the hope of toppling the regime, and bombing mostly Persians, the most likely outcome (assuming they are actually able to force regime change, which is far from guaranteed) is fragmentation and general lawlessness.
Note that whoever inherits the regime would have to deal with wholesale destruction of the country, traumatized population and hate for those who bombed them and killed their relatives and children. Slavishly obeying the new foreign overlords will not be very popular. Have we not learned anything from Iraq and Afghanistan? How can you still believe the fairy tales of welcoming the liberators?
The wars are already total for the weaker sides. See Ukraine/Iran.
Did not stop the stronger side attacking.
You are advocating for no constraints (total war) on the stronger side. Taken literally, that means genocide of the losers. Really, that's what you want?
But yes, you are right, the world would be much simpler in such case - there will be no humans left. OK, maybe some hunter-gatherers.
> You are advocating for no constraints (total war) on the stronger side. Taken literally, that means genocide of the losers. Really, that's what you want?
Taken literally, it means genocide of the losers is an option the winning side has. It always has been.
Note that Genghis Khan's explicit plan when he conquered China was to wipe out the Chinese to make room for Mongols. He wasn't stopped from doing that; there was no constraint to block him.
Did democrats offer primaries in the last elections?
Did voting for Bernie Sanders in the last two primaries (especially the ones when Trump won for the first time) amount to anything?
I wonder how long can the American public keep the self delusion that the elections are anything but a theater for the naive, to keep the pretense the public has any say in things that matter.
How much has the current administration asked the public about going to war with Iran?
Money issue is also a skill issue, but I have no doubt in the era of free media someone could figure it out.
Sorry I didn't invent the idea that there are federal elections every two years, I'm just telling you that you have to win them. Bonus points: this is also how you can change the election schedule or political system!
If you're saying both candidates were bad when one was Trump, and the other was Hillary, Kamala, or Joe, then you don't have very good judgement. I agree Trump lying about not starting a war was bad. Many of us have said for years that he is a terrible liar. Please help us.
I agree that Clinton/Harris/Biden are not equally bad as Trump.
Trump is monstrously bad (= force the shit hitting the fan NOW), the democratic alternatives were just 'normally' bad (= continue the same old crap driving the shit closer to the fan, ignoring the looming disaster).
> How much has the current administration asked the public about going to war with Iran
Here is the 2026 Senate map [1]. Do you suggest any of them will flip over Iran? (I don’t. The folks who regularly vote simply don’t show any sign that this is a priority. Folks who stay at home grumbling don’t matter.)
1) He did not win primaries, in significant part also because DNC was heavily against him. The level playing field thing.
2) If he won the primaries, there is still no guarantee that that would have amounted to anything.
First, he might not have won the elections (mainstream media and the whole ruling elites were heavily against him). And even if he won, he might not have been able to do much against the permanent state.
I still think the main cause of Trump's wins is the deep disillusionment of the democratic voters by Obama's failure (inability/unwillingness) to impact a meaningful change.
Sadly, it is also factually correct (i.e. not delusional).
Which of my statements are you contesting?
From my point of view, your stance (play fairly, according to the rules set by your stronger opponent) is delusional. Note that the opponent is not 'republicans', but the whole ruling elites.
And no, I can't help you, I am not USian, just an outside observer. Sadly, due to its weight, whatever USA does, heavily influences everybody else as well.
No, it isn’t. Sanders’ supporters didn’t have the votes. That’s a fact.
If people believe in something, they should call their electeds and vote. The fact that a lot of people with a certain confluence of views (privacy, anti-war, et cetera) are too lazy to do either (regardless of post rationalization), but not self aware enough to not complain about it, is delusional cynicism.
I said the leadership of the democratic party did dirty tricks to prevent him winning.
The mainstream media was also against him.
Not anywhere close to a level playing field.
Note, that I am not against voting or calling your elected officials and all the related stuff. That is necessary. But, sadly, far from sufficient. If you think that that is sufficient, you are delusional.
Your subsequent generalizations are lazy and unsubstantiated, in fact they fit the classical smear patterns established by the mainstream media.
But still, ultimately, turnout was turnout. Media saying mean things about your side isn’t a real excuse, Trump has been saying the same for a decade.
> they fit the classical smear patterns established by the mainstream media
Of course they must. In the meantime, the issues I care about seem decently reflected (outside privacy and war, where I concede most Americans who share my views are lazy, delusional and nihilistic). I’ve even had the opportunity to help write some state and federal legislation. So I guess I should be okay with the lack of political competition.
> Did democrats offer primaries in the last elections?
Uh, yeah? I voted for Biden/Harris.
And in any case, focusing almost exclusively on one race is part of the problem. Where I live, we also had a Dem primary for the house district, and a more electable candidate won - and then went on to win in the general. It was one of the very few red->blue flips in 2024.
Then there are all the races for school boards, city council, county commission and all those things that provide the base and the bench to build off of.
I like that I can’t tell if this is some sort of admonition for not voting centrist enough in a primary that didn’t happen or for not voting left enough in a primary that did not happen. It seems like if you’re going to be so bold as to do a callout you might as well say what for (and why you either picked or specifically skipped a primary that did not happen)
... But the government flooding cities with thousands of masked thugs with a license to do whatever they want... has so far been an entirely Republican thing.
There are more colours to the world than pure black and pure white. There are also a million shades of grey in between, and most of us have the ability to distinguish between them.
That works nicely if your institution participates in ACM Open (no such institution in my country, and no, my country is not in the list of lower-middle income countries).
The combination of 'publish or perish' with 'pay for publication' and 'miserly grant money' is deadly.
While in theory the idea is nice, in practice this is a problem (maybe not in most rich countries, but here definitely).
Nowadays, you could always get the article you are interested in, even if it is beyond a paywall. Hence, perversely, the old model (which I hate, for reasons well explained in the original post) worked better for me. :-(
Last I checked, International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court tend to disagree.
To say nothing about overuse/abuse of the term 'terrorist' and weasel words 'terrorist aligned ideologies'.
To say nothing about being randomly in the vicinity of a person Israel might consider terrorist might put you in mortal danger, simply because they do not care about 'collateral damage'.
To say nothing about being Palestinian child being a 'future terrorist'.
To say nothing about trying to document what they are doing might put you in mortal danger (just look up the number of journalists killed by Israel).
Is every death at the hands of Israel against someone who is terrorist or has "terrorist-aligned ideologies"? If not, is every unjustified death of a civilian just "one IDF soldier doing something bad"?
You are handwaving away any sort of accountability from Israel. It is impossible, given your framing, for Israel to ever do anything wrong.
On the contrary, target is a neutral word, justifying the violence against a target is exactly as difficult as it should be - based on the circumstances instead of emotions.
Victim already implies wrongdoing so it makes justifying just violence harder than it should be.
For the record, i often use target instead of victim when talking about harassment, bullying, rape, etc. because it also doesn't imply surrender to the aggressor or lack of agency.
The problem is that it is routinely misused (especially by those who have overwhelming power), and the cases where it is really needed are really, really, really rare.
Even in cases when it appears that the use of violence is justified, the long term consequences (e.g. on culture and mentality, and hence ultimately on normal daily life) are usually such that it would have been better to avoid it in the first place.
At the moment you regularly shoot/drone the dictators, the one deciding who is dictator warranting such violence is the most scary dictator of all.
This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
And that's why it's important to establish publicly known and accepted rules about this. Nobody suggests one person deciding this, usually people who imagine this situation have some issues of their own.
But the threat of absolutely any citizen having a decent chance of successfully killing a dictator would probably lead to democratization of power - individuals would not be attracted to having so much power they would likely become targets and we'd hopefully see more effort towards establishing more direct means of decision making.
> This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
No need for insults, it's a simplification. It's obviously a spectrum. But broadly speaking, people who regularly intentionally harm others for their gain or pleasure (or see nothing wrong with doing it or support those who do) are considered bad. People who go out of their way to help others are good. The rest is neutral. Most people are neutral - don't see injustice or wrongdoing as their problem until it directly negatively affects them.
And obviously, there are people who do both a lot of good and a lot of bad. I consider those bad because more often than not, they only do the good things to gain support or compensate so they can get away with the bad things.
That's my personal opinion and experience. Other people could for example argue for simply summing up the good and the bad and the total would neatly categorize them. Intent also matters and that's even more complex but usually unprovable from the outside.
From my naive observation, the regimes of Eastern Europe had lost their will to perpetuate. (Everybody saw, including party apparatchiks, that the people in the west have better lives. Or at least better goods. :-) )
The cynical take would be that the (smarter) communists in power prepared themselves for the transition, positioning themselves to benefit after the change.
If you have traveled a bit around the world, and first hand experienced different cultures, you will recognize that Russia of Moscow/Petersburg and other big cities is much closer to 'west' than to 'east' of China/India/Japan/Mongolia/Indonesia.
Maybe not western enough for you, it does have a distinct flavour (but then Sicilia is also distinctly different from Sweden), but still much closer to Europe than to Asia proper.
You know, doing the Syria and Libya (and Iraq and Afghanistan) thing was the 'right thing', right?
Do you really believe that after the violent regime change Iran will become the beacon of prosperity in the ME?
Yes, I believe if the things are really out of hands (like Khmer rouge in Kambodia), external intervention is warranted.
That can be done against small/weak states where the result can be achieved fast and without too much bloodshed (compared to what is already going on), and when agreed on by UN. Will most definitely need boots on the ground.
It is an entirely different matter against a 90million vast state like Iran. Note that boots on the ground is not in the cards, and most probably will never be. The approach is 'bomb and hope'. Which guarantees misery and bloodshed of Iranian blood. And if the result is fall of the ayatollah regime, and replaced by nationalists with socialistic tendencies, that would not really cooperate with USA (= sell oil rights and totally dismantle their military) then what? Bomb more? How can you honestly believe this is the best for Iranian people?
You know, maybe it would be just enough if you do not actively work on making their life miserable (sanctions and inciting instability).
There were almost no Syrian refugees before operation Timber-Sycamore.
Thank you USA, our dear friend and freedom-sharing soulmate, for unnecessary refugee crisis in Europe (and another one from Ukraine). With friends like that, who needs enemies. Also, as the above two examples (and Biden's Inflation reduction act, and Nuland's 'f*k Europe'), it is not a Trump thing, its USA thing.
Now apply the same logic to the current Iran war.