I know nothing about this but JumpCrisscross seems to use "political" to mean "has donated large sums of money" while your use of "political" is more like.. someone who does politics.
I think they're using it in a technical sense that's idiosyncratic to America: "career" members of the Foreign Service Corps, versus "political" appointees that can be directly appointed at higher ranks, but at the pleasure of the (in turn politically-appointed) secretary.
The first might have joined the Foreign Service and worked their way up; the second might have had a career elsewhere (not necessarily in political office), get invited to work for an administration, and then leave once there's a change in power.
> but at the pleasure of the (in turn politically-appointed) secretary
Parent is correct. The amount varies from administration to administration. But if you really want to be an ambassador, you're well positioned if you bundle a few hundred thousand to a few million dollars for the winning campaign. (There are traditionally limits. You can't usually buy your way into the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad or London. But for the postings with limited security implications, where the focus is on trade, you're mostly hosting expensive parties for your post.)
The only known explanation of what's going on in quantum mechanics is a multiversal one^[1]. Using radioactive decay of an atom as an example: there are an uncountably infinite number of universes that are initially "fungible" (identical in every way), and over time the universes gradually differentiate themselves with the atom going from a non-decayed to decayed state, at different times in each universe. But you will be in all of those universes. So if you thought the atom would decay in, let's say 5 seconds, there would be some universes where you were right and some where you were wrong. That makes it impossible to ever make reliable specific predictions about when the atom will decay. So, in practice that just looks like perfect randomness.
^[1]: There are other interpretations, of course. And those other interpretations are equally explanatory. But they do not claim to be explanations of what is actually happening to unobserved quantum particles. There is also Bohmian mechanics, but I don't know how many people take it seriously.
We don't. We know with great certainty it's either random or needs non-local variables, which would let information travel faster than c, among other things. (This is a consistent result of the Bell test.)
What's bullshit about it? This is how TRNGs in security enclaves work. They collect entropy from the environment, and use that to continuously reseed a PRNG, which generates bits.
If you're talking "true" in the philosophical sense, that doesn't exist -- the whole concept of randomness relies on an oracle.
What PRNGs lack compared to TRNGs is security (i.e. preventing someone from being able to use past values to predict future values). It's not that they somehow produce statistically invalid results (e.g. they generate 3s more often than 2s or something). Unless they're very poorly constructed.
While LCGs are bad by themselves, they (together with Galois field counters, which have a large number of possible implementations, e.g. LFSRs, GFSRs, XorShift etc.) have some very desirable properties for a PRNG: known period, it is possible to make jumps through the sequence and it is possible to extract sub-sequences from it that are certain to not overlap, e.g. for a multithreaded simulation.
Because of this, the best non-cryptographic PRNGs are made from either a LCG or a GFC that ensures the properties mentioned above, together with a non-linear mixing function that scrambles the output, for much better statistical properties than a linear generator would have alone.
The good cryptographic RNGs have the same kind of structure, but where a one-way hash function or a block cipher function is used to scramble the output of a counter. The counter ensures in a simpler way the same properties as a LCG or GFC. A simple counter can be used here because the output mixing function is much more complex.
I don't think hardware random number generators are bullshit, but it's easy to overstate their importance. Outside of cryptography, there aren't a whole lot of cases that truly require that much care in how random numbers are generated. For the kind of examples the article opens with (web page A/B testing, clinical trials, etc.) you'll never have sample sizes large enough to justify worrying about the difference between a half-decent PRNG and a "true" random number generator.
Kahnemann had the intellectual honesty to accept that large parts of his book are flawed, and he called on psychologists to clean up their act by doing a systematic multiple reproduction study program:
I once heard an interviewer ask him if Kahneman was still susceptible to cognitive biases after reading the book. He said something to the effect of "absolutely, they're tough to escape". I really appreciated that. People that recognize and acknowledge the fallibility of their own minds are a breath of fresh air.
I don't think that's a great example. If Kahneman claimed not to be susceptible, it would have greatly undermined his claims about the universality of these phenomena: many other people would presumably also not be susceptible.
If I remember correctly I took the interviewer's question to mean "now that you're aware of these cognitive biases are you still affected by them?" not "do you experience cognitive biases?". I don't see the first question at odds with the universality claim. The latter would be.
> Starting with this release, pandoc can be compiled to WASM, making it
possible to use pandoc in the browser. A full-featured GUI interface
is provided at https://pandoc.org/app.
I‘ve been using it as a general bookmark manager (think Pinboard or Raindrop) for a while now. It‘s a bit quirky, but very powerful with all the management and annotation possibilities.
You might say it was just another excuse to curate my thousands of bookmarks and recreate a new tagging structure yet again, but… well, you wouldn‘t be wrong. :-)
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